wall street Archives - Zenconomics

The Regulatory Industrial Complex

excerpt from The Left, the Right, and the State by Llewellyn H. Rockwell Jr. :

Founded by Richard Nixon, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration is an anti-entrepreneur agency. Not only does OSHA target small and medium-size businesses, its regulatory cases are easily handled by Exxon’s squad of lawyers, while they can bankrupt a small firm.

Also founded by Nixon, the Consumer Product Safety Commission issues regulations drawn up in open consultation with big business—regulations that often conform exactly to what those firms are already doing. Small businesses, on the other hand, must spend heavily to comply.

Another Nixon creation is the Environmental Protection Agency, whose budget is larded with the influence of politically connected businesses, and whose regulations buttress established industries and discriminate against entrepreneurs, by— for example—legalizing pollution for existing companies, but making new firms spend heavily

The Department of Housing and Urban Development was founded by Lyndon B. Johnson, but its roots stretch back to the housing policy of the New Deal, whose explicit purpose was to subsidize builders of rental and single-family housing. Since LBJ’s Great Society, HUD has subsidized builders of public housing projects, and of subsidized private housing. How can anyone be surprised that fat cats use HUD to line their pockets? That was its purpose.

The Securities and Exchange Commission was established by Franklin D. Roosevelt, with its legislation written by corporate lawyers to cartelize the market for big Wall Street firms. Over the years, the SEC has stopped many new stock issues by smaller companies, who might grow and compete with the industrial and commercial giants aligned with the big Wall Street firms. And right now, it is lessening competition in the futures and commodities markets.

The Interstate Commerce Commission was created in 1887 to stop “cut-throat” competition among railroads (i.e., competitive pricing) and to enforce high prices. Later amendments extended its power to trucking and other forms of transportation, where it also prevented competition. During the Carter administration, much of the ICC’s power was trimmed, but some of this was undone in the Reagan administration.

The Federal Communications Commission was established by Herbert Hoover to prevent private property in radio frequencies, and to place ownership in the hands of the government. The FCC set up the network system, whose licenses went to politically connected businessmen, and delayed technological breakthroughs that might threaten the networks. There was some deregulation during the Reagan administration— although it was the development of cable TV that did the most good, by circumventing the networks.

The Department of Agriculture runs America’s farming on behalf of producers, keeping prices high, profits up, imports out, and new products off the shelves. We can’t know what food prices would be in the absence of the appropriately initialed DOA, only that food would be much cheaper. Now, for the first time since the farm program was established by Herbert Hoover, as a copy of the Federal Food Administration he ran during World War I, we are seeing widespread criticism of farm welfare.

The Federal Trade Commission—as shown by the fascist deco statue in front of its headquarters—claims to “tame” the “wild horse of the market” on behalf of the public. Since its founding in 1914, however, it has restrained the market to the benefit of established firms. That’s why the chief lobbyists for the FTC were all from big business.

When then-Congressman Steve Symms (R-ID) tried to partially deregulate the Food and Drug Administration in the 1970s to allow more new drugs, he was stopped by the big drug companies and their trade association. Why? Because the FDA exists to protect them.

OSHA, CPSC, EPA, HUD, SEC, ICC, FCC, DOA, FTC, FDA—I could go on and on, through the entire alphabet from Hell. I have only scratched the villainous surface. But according to the average history or economics text, these agencies emerged in response to public demand. There is never a hint of the regulatory-industrial complex. We’re told that the public is being served. And it is: on a platter.

The True Cost of the Homeownership Obsession

by Ryan McMaken

Article originally published in the February issue of BankNotes.

In 2014, the US homeownership rate fell below 65 percent, which means it’s back to where it was during the 1970s and much of the 1990s. Various federal agencies have long made homeownership a priority, and have introduced a bevy of government and quasi-government programs including the GSEs like Fannie Mae, FHA-insured loans, VA-insured loans, the Bush administration’s “American Dream Downpayment Initiative” and, of course central bank meddling to keep interest rates nice and low for the mortgage markets.

And for all their efforts, all the inflation, and all the taxpayer-funded subsidies poured into bailouts, we have a homeownership rate at where it was forty years ago. During the housing boom, though, homeownership rates climbed to unprecedented levels, cracking 70 percent or more in many parts of the country. When the boom in homeownership came to an end, it was not a painless matter of people selling their homes. It was a very costly readjustment process, and it was something that would have been completely unnecessary and would never have happened to the degree it did without the interference of Congress, the central bank, and the easy-money
induced boom they engineered.

The American Dream = Homeownership

Homeownership rates have never been an indicator of economic prosperity. Switzerland, for example, has a homeownership rate half of the US rate. Nevertheless, raising the homeownership rate has long been a pet project of politicians in Washington. Nevertheless, the political obsession with raising homeownership rates dates back to the New Deal when Roosevelt began introducing a variety of homeownership programs designed to drive down the percentage of households that were renting their homes. Based on romantic ideas of frontier homesteading, it was assumed that owning a house was the only truly American way of living. It was during this time that the thirty-year mortgage — an artifact of government intervention — became a fixture of the mortgage landscape. And homeownership rates did indeed increase. And with it, debt loads increased as well.

By the 1990s, central-bank engineered low interest rates propelled mortgage debt loads to awe inspiring new levels, and houses kept getting bigger as families got smaller. Government-sponsored entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac kept the liquidity flowing and home equity lines of credit turned houses into sources of income.

From 2002 to 2007, those of us who worked in or around the mortgage industry were amazed at just how easy it was to get a loan even with a very sketchy credit history and unreliable income. Only token down payments were necessary. Many of these less-than-impressive borrowers bought multiple houses. Behind all of it was the Federal government and the Fed forever repeating the mantra of more homeownership, lower interest rates, more mortgages, and rising home prices. The rising homeownership levels were for the populists. The rising home prices were for the bankers and the existing homeowners.

A Housing-Related Employment Bubble

The housing bubble became the gift that seemingly never stopped giving because with all this home buying came millions of new jobs in real estate, construction, and home mortgages. Seemingly everyone looked to real estate as a source of easy money. The bag boy at your local grocery store was selling condos on the side, and everyone seemed to be selling new home loans. Home builders couldn’t keep up with the orders and contractors had six-week waiting lists.

We know how that all ended. The foreclosure rate doubled from 2002 to 2010. Implied government backing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac became explicit government backing, and numerous too-big-to-fail banks which had invested in home mortgages were bailed out to the tune of hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars. Some lenders like Countrywide and Indymac essentially went out of business, and all lenders (including many who were not bailed out) faced costs ranging from 20,000 to 40,000 per foreclosure in lost revenue, legal fees, and other costs. Foreclosures begat foreclosures as foreclosure-dense neighborhoods were most prone to price drops, leading to negative equity, which in turn led to even more foreclosures. Ironically, the most responsible borrowers — the ones who made sizable down payments and reliably made payments, and thus had more skin in the game — were the ones who suffered the most and who had the most to lose by simply walking away from their homes.

Real estate agents, loan industry professionals, construction workers, and others who relied on the home purchase industry lost their jobs and had to spend time and money on retraining in completely new industries. Or they were simply among the millions who collected unemployment checks and food stamps supplied by those who still had jobs

Was the Bubble Worth It?

And for what? The opportunity cost of it all was immense and during the bubble years, total workers in housing-related employment ballooned to 7.4 million, many of whom were fooled by the bubble into
thinking the home-sales industry was a good long-term career. To get these jobs they spent many hours and thousands of dollars on certification, training, and job experience. After the bubble popped, three million of those jobs disappeared. From 2001 to 2006, employment in the mortgage industry increased by 119 percent, only to have most of those jobs disappear from 2006 to 2009.

Now, there will always be people who make bad career decisions, and there will always be frictional unemployment, but without the housing bubble and the myriad of federal programs and central bank pumping behind it, would millions of workers have flooded into these industries knowing that most of them would be unemployable in that same industry only a few years later? That seems unlikely.

Moreover, might we be better off today if those same people, many of whom were very talented, had invested their time and money into other fields and other endeavors? What businesses were never opened and what products were never made because so many flocked to the housing sector? We’ll never know. Thanks to the government’s relentless drive for more homeownership and ever-increasing home prices, millions of workers concluded that real-estate jobs were the best bet in the modern economy. They thought this because investors chasing yield in a low-interest-rate environment were pouring their money into owner-occupant housing in response to government guarantees on single-family loans and easy money for mortgage lending. The people were promised more homeownership, but after just a few years, it has become clear they didn’t get it. At the same time, Wall Street was promised high home prices, and when the prices faltered, it was offered bailouts instead. Wall Street got its bailouts.

The cost of the housing bubble is often calculated in dollar amounts that can easily be counted on Wall Street, but for those who aren’t politically well-connected — for ordinary workers, homeowners, construction firms, and many others — the cost in time and lost opportunities will forever remain among the many unseen costs of government intervention.

Please see the February issue of BankNotes for the original article and others like it.

Individual Solutions: Building Financial Resiliency

submitted by jwithrow.

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
Individual Solutions: Building Financial Resiliency

February 12, 2015
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P opened at $2,071 today. Gold is down to $1,226 per ounce. Oil is floating around $49 per barrel. Bitcoin is hanging around $221 per BTC, and the 10-year Treasury rate opened at 2.03% today.

Ten central banks have cut interest rates so far in 2015. The list includes: Australia, Canada, China, Denmark, India, Egypt, Pakistan, Peru, Russia, and Turkey. Additionally, both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are actively buying sovereign debt… with counterfeited currency created from thin air. The Federal Reserve is taking a break from this exercise after nearly six years of creating currency to shop at the U.S. Treasury and go yard-saling on Wall Street. Of course the $4.5 trillion worth of sovereign debt and mortgage-backed securities still sits on the Fed’s balance sheet in the interim.

All of this economic intervention is a concerted effort to stave off a major credit contraction. The central bankers talk about hitting certain GDP and unemployment rate metrics but that is all part of their dog and pony show. If creating currency out of thin air could actually grow an economy and create jobs then we would already live in a utopian paradise. But that’s just not how the world works.

Try as they may to avoid it, the coming credit contraction is inevitable. You see, the global monetary system has been fraudulent for a little more than four decades now. Gold officially anchored the global monetary system for two centuries prior to 1971. Then, in 1971, President Nixon’s administration acted to break away from two hundred years of tradition and the U.S. ended direct convertibility of the dollar to gold. Of course the “Great Society” welfare programs and the Vietnam War had a lot to do with this decision.

“Your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today,” Nixon proclaimed on television with a straight face. “The effect of this action, in other words, will be to stabilize the dollar.”

Of course the exact opposite happened: the U.S. dollar fell off a cliff. Anyone living during the 70’s can attest to this. What was the price of a new home back then? A new car? A hamburger? The difference between what those items cost in 1971 and what they cost today represents how far the U.S. dollar has fallen in purchasing power.

How did this happen?

Well, with all ties to gold removed governments and central banks discovered they could conjure currency into existence to pay for anything they wanted. Tanks, fighter jets, food stamps, Medicare part D, $800 trash cans… no problem! So they embarked upon this historic credit expansion armed with a magical monetary system that provided them with money for nothing.

But governments weren’t the only beneficiaries. The companies making the tanks and the bombs made out like bandits. So did all of the bureaucrats who were hired as government expanded. And the people receiving welfare benefits found the system quite palatable as well. Pretty soon smart people learned that the best business in the world was to sell something to the U.S. government because it had unlimited money to spend. So they descended upon K Street like buzzards on road-kill and pretty soon the suburbs surrounding D.C. claimed home to six of the wealthiest ten counties in the U.S.

The champagne has been flowing up on the Hill and in the lobbyist offices on K Street for four decades now thanks mostly to the fraudulent fiat monetary system in place since 1971. The establishment hails their elastic currency system as a major success but theirs is a self-serving and short term view. Credit has been constantly expanding since 1971 but do we really think this can go on forever? Can we continue to run up debt, print money to pay interest on that debt, and then buy all of the fighter jets, disability checks, politicians, and cheap junk from China without ever having to think twice about it? If not, what happens when the credit contracts and we can no longer afford all of these expenditures?

The Austrian School of Economics tells us what the result of this madness will be: a “crack-up boom” followed by a monstrous bust as all of the bad debt and malinvestments are finally liquidated.

The crack-up boom occurs as the prices of assets and real goods are driven up to the moon by enormous amounts of excess currency conjured into existence in an attempt to perpetuate the credit expansion. After all, that new currency has to go somewhere. This scheme will work to stave off the credit contraction… until it doesn’t. Then cometh the bust.

While Austrian Economics can make the diagnosis, the timing of the bust cannot be predicted. There are too many interconnected factors at play. What’s important is that there is still time to build financial resiliency in advance. The cornerstone of financial resiliency is knowledge and understanding. Understand fiat money is an illusion. Understand the difference between money and wealth. Study Austrian Economics to get a feel for what’s really going on in the economy.

Once you understand how the monetary system actually works you can formulate a customized asset allocation model based upon your personal circumstances.

A resilient asset allocation model will consist of cash (20-30%), precious metals (10-30%), real estate (30-60%), and strategic equities (10-15%).

At minimum you should carry enough cash to cover at least 6-12 months of expenses. Distressed assets will go on sale when then bust hits so any cash in excess of your reserve fund can be used to acquire these distressed assets (real estate, stocks, businesses, etc.) when they are cheap.

Your precious metals allocation should consist of physical gold and silver bullion stored at home or in a legal segregated account overseas. Never store precious metals in a domestic bank vault – Americans learned this the hard way back in the 30’s when the banks closed and FDR raided the vaults to confiscate gold. Remember, precious metals are insurance not speculation. The price of gold (and silver) will skyrocket in terms of fiat currency, but its purchasing power will remain relatively constant just as it has for thousands of years. Those who save in fiat currency will see their wealth evaporate as the credit contraction unfolds while those who hold precious metals will weather the storm. J.P Morgan testified before Congress in 1912: “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” Don’t be fooled.

Real estate presents a unique opportunity currently as we are living during a period of historically low interest rates and lenders are willing to offer long term mortgages at these low rates. This provides a tremendous opportunity to lock in these low rates on real estate for thirty years during which time interest rates will inevitably rise significantly.

We firmly believe stocks should make up the smallest percentage of a resilient portfolio under current economic conditions. Stockholders have been the primary beneficiaries of the massive credit expansion and all of the easy-money chicanery over the past several years. Financial institutions have poured new money into the equities markets and publicly-traded companies have used a ton of excess cash to buy back shares of their own stock. As a result current stock valuations do not reflect the underlying health of the economy. Though stocks will run for a bit longer, we are closer to the end than the beginning of the bull cycle. We think the exception is in the resource and commodity sector, however. The stocks of well-managed companies in this sector could do extremely well over the next few years as the global financial system continues to falter.

Nobody can control macroeconomic conditions but we can each control our individual response to them. Building financial resiliency by constructing a diversified portfolio across several asset classes is an individual solution to a collective problem. Financial resiliency is just half of the picture, however. Tomorrow we will look at what we call home resiliency.

Until the morrow,

Joe Withrow

Wayward Philosopher

For more of Joe’s thoughts on the “Great Reset” and the paradigm shift underway please read “The Individual is Rising” which is available at http://www.theindividualisrising.com/. The book is also available on Amazon in both paperback and Kindle editions.

The Cultural Shift Away from Parasitic Society

submitted by jwithrow.

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
The Cultural Shift Away from Parasitic Society

January 22, 2015
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P opened at $2,034 today. Gold is up to $1,296 per ounce. Oil is floating around $46 per barrel. Bitcoin has climbed slightly to $233 per BTC, and the 10-year Treasury rate opened at 1.94% today.

The big news today is the quantitative easing announcement from the European Central Bank. The global madness continues! The ECB will create 60 billion euros every month to buy sovereign European bonds with September 2016 being the target end date.

As we have seen, first in Japan and then in the U.S., once a central bank sets forth to monetize sovereign debt there is no turning back. Japan now plans to buy Japanese equities in addition to government debt. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is even discussing a plan to print yen and buy every Japanese citizen a gift card! The U.S. embarked on QE1, then QE2, then QE3, and I fully expect QE4 to come by early 2016 at the latest, quite possibly sooner. All of these liquidity programs have caused major distortions and malinvestments in the economy.

Last week we pulled the curtain back and examined how the Fed has artificially propped up the economy with exponential credit expansion and we realized the house of cards will fall when the credit expansion stops. We also discussed some strategies to insulate your portfolio from the coming financial destruction.

We are particularly scornful of the Fed and its policies because most of the economic problems we now face could not exist if it weren’t for the adoption of central banking. It is important to point out, however, the deformation of capitalism and free markets is a much broader issue that is not the result of one or two bad policies thus the problems cannot be fixed with a few simple tweaks. Ultimately, it was a gradual cultural shift that enabled the growth of governments and central banks, parasitic institutions all, and it is a cultural shift that must once again occur before present-day problems can be solved.

This sounds like such a strange thing to say primarily because our school textbooks do not promote an understanding of real history. Instead, the textbooks present current culture and institutions as the inevitable end of history – our way is the best way! With this belief (hurray for our side!) instilled within them at an early age, people are later unable to emotionally detach themselves from large cultural systems even when they know the systems have become corrupt. The corruption is associated with a single individual or group rather than the underlying systems; it’s always the fault of a particular president or political party so people endlessly think the solution is to throw out the bums and elect better leaders. This dynamic has played out all through history just as it is playing out within our current civilization.

The cultural shift in America ramped up at the dawn of the 20th century as Americans increasingly shifted away from market-based societies and towards top-down authoritarianism. This cultural shift fueled the disease of politics to the point where everything is politicized today. Here’s a brief timeline to map this cultural shift:

1913: The Federal Reserve System is established, the Sixteenth Amendment creates the income tax, the Seventeenth Amendment eliminates a major check on federal power by transferring the election of Senators away from state legislatures and to the general populace.

1918: All states have passed compulsory school attendance laws giving rise to the public school system.

1933-1938: The New Deal launches both the welfare state and the regulatory state with an avalanche of federal programs, President Roosevelt confiscates and criminalizes private gold ownership in America.

1944: The Bretton Woods Agreement officially puts an end to the international gold standard.

1950: The Korean War launches the warfare state.

1955: The Vietnam War institutionalizes the warfare state and marks the rise of the military-industrial complex which made perpetual war an extremely profitable enterprise for defense contractors.

1964: The Great Society expands the welfare state tremendously by launching even bolder federal programs to fight the “War on Poverty”, silver is demonetized and removed from U.S. coinage.

1971: President Nixon unilaterally ends the U.S. dollar’s convertibility to gold thus ending the Bretton Woods System and giving rise to a 100% fiat monetary system.

1981: President Reagan announces the “War on Drugs” paving the way for police militarization all across the U.S.

2001: President Bush announces the “War on Terror” leading to the escalation of foreign military interventions, The PATRIOT Act is passed authorizing the destruction of American privacy and civil liberties and launching the domestic surveillance police state.

2008: T.A.R.P. is passed authorizing the federal government to bailout Wall Street with taxpayer funds, The Federal Reserve launches its first quantitative easing (QE) program designed to purchase Treasury bonds from the federal government and mortgage-backed securities from Wall Street using newly created currency.

2010: The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is passed effectively cartelizing the already corrupt health care industry in the U.S. with an onslaught of mandates, subsidies, databases, and centralized federal interventions that will undoubtedly lead to reduced quality and skyrocketing prices in the health care industry.

There are certainly gaps and omissions in this timeline but it does illustrate the cultural shift over the past century.

Every one of these bullet points increased the size, scope, and power of existing power-institutions – the U.S. Government, the Federal Reserve, Wall Street, U.S. Intelligence Agencies, Defense Contractors, Police Forces, Public Schools and Universities, Insurance Companies, and a whole host of smaller institutions that benefit from increased centralization, taxation, and regulation. All of these items reinforce the idea that politics should be used as a piecemeal solution to any problem (or perceived problem) that exists. Likewise, these items reinforce the idea that political action is the only solution available to those who do not agree with the political mandates imposed upon them. All of these items serve to transfer power and sovereignty away from individuals, families, and communities to politically connected monolithic institutions.

The corporate media perpetuates this transfer of power from individuals to institutions by conditioning the public to emotionally identify with one or the other political party. Once emotionally attached to a political party people are easily convinced by the same corporate media that the other political party is the enemy. If our team can beat their team in the next election then everything will be fine. This locks people into a perpetual short-term mindset as if the next election is the most important election in history. They forget that they have been participating in the election process for decades only to see political and economic problems grow much larger over the same time period. Even worse, the media perpetuated left-right paradigm turns neighbors against one another over irrelevant issues thus distracting them from the major problems (and solutions) of our time.

It is easy for us to point fingers at the power-institutions but we must also understand that they only exist because we legitimize them.

Fortunately the necessary cultural shift away from parasitic politics and institutionalized authoritarianism is already in motion. The shift is still in its infancy and it is particularly quiet due to the aggressiveness of the power-institutions currently in existence. For this reason the shift is only visible to those who are actively looking for it. But the cultural shift towards free markets and non-coercion will become much more apparent over time as the 20th century political world continues to collapse under the weight of corruption and injustice…

Until the morrow,

Joe Withrow
Wayward Philosopher

Real Estate for the Long Haul

submitted by jwithrow.

Did you know that the average real estate mortgage is in existence for less than seven years?

Wall Street does and that is why they are willing to purchase and package thirty year fixed rate mortgages into securities for retail. Which is why banks are willing to originate thirty year fixed rate mortgages to sell to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to then sell to Wall Street to package into securities to then sell to their “muppet” clients (ask Goldman Sachs).

This is also why mortgage contracts are front-loaded with interest. You see, fixing an interest rate for thirty years (or fifteen) would be a losing position for the bank if it had to keep the mortgage on its books for the contractual length of time. Fortunately, most people are not terribly disciplined so they either refinance or sell their home within seven years of purchase.

Let’s examine this process from a financial point of view. The bank collects a myriad of origination fees when real estate is purchased and it collects an un-proportional amount of interest in the early years of the mortgage contract. Then, within seven years, the homeowner either refinances or sells the home. When the homeowner re-finances, the bank collects a myriad of origination fees once again. When the homeowner sells the home, the bank also collects a myriad of origination fees again.

Now we don’t mean to vilify bank fees, We are simply pointing out that this revolving process results in a constant drain of private capital. Each time origination fees are paid that is a little bit of capital being drawn into the banking system that could have been used by the individual to build wealth instead. Once in the banking system, exponential debt will be pyramided on top of that small amount of capital.

The point is this:

We have been buying the same real estate over and over again for decades and we have been giving up small chunks of capital each and every time the same houses have been purchased.

Wouldn’t it make a lot more sense if we just bought our homes, paid off the mortgage, and then kept them within our control? Imagine the possibilities! Of course this wouldn’t make sense in every case, but the idea is worth considering…