precious metal bullion Archives

Brighter Days Ahead for Gold

“It’s a new dawn, it’s a new day.” —Nina Simone

Those lyrics from the timeless Nina Simone song Feeling Good certainly draw a parallel to the present state of gold.

After a rough couple of years, gold begins 2015 with a clean state. It will take time to shake off its hangover, but the yellow metal is looking good early into the new year.

Of course, gold still has its fair share of critics. Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, recently referred to gold as a “shiny bitcoin.” Refuting such a ludicrous statement isn’t worth the digital ink. Instead, we’ll keep it short and simply say: Such a statement ignores 6,000 years of human history.

Not all gold bears are as controversial. Most analysts pessimistic about gold’s near-term outlook cite the strong dollar, rising interest rates, and deflated energy prices as headwinds, though we would argue that each of these factors actually reinforces the need to hold gold… but that’s a discussion for another day.

Rather, let’s take a look at what some of the sharpest financial minds are saying about gold:

• In terms of gold price expectations, it appears that the repair of technical picture is now behind us and that a stable bottom has formed. The next 12-month price target is the USD 1,500 level. Longer term, a parabolic trend acceleration, with a long-term target of USD 2,300 by the end of the cycle.—Ron Stoferle, Incrementum Lichtenstein

• In the long term, however, I am more bullish on the gold price than I have ever been. All central bankers want inflation, and one day they will get it. Betting on inflation is the surest thing I have ever bet on in my life.—Pierre Lassonde, Chairman of Franco-Nevada (FNV)

• The lengthy bottoming process in gold seems to be nearing its close. The conditions that led to a decade-long rise in the gold price in 1999 are quite similar to today. Gold is not just ignored but hated by mainstream investors—it’s the Rodney Dangerfield of investment concepts.—John Hathway, Comanager of Tocqueville Gold Fund

Optimism about gold is also showing up where it matters most: the spot price. Gold has climbed nearly 12% since its November low and is off to its hottest start since 2008. Last week’s surprise announcement by the Swiss government to sever its peg to the euro provided the latest boost. It’s yet another reminder to own gold, the only asset that isn’t somebody else’s liability. We see this as a recurring theme in 2015.

Article originally posted in the January issue of Smart Metals Investor at HardAssetsAlliance.com.

How to Insulate Your Portfolio from the Fed’s Financial Destruction

submitted by jwithrow.

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
How to Insulate Your Portfolio from the Fed’s Financial Destruction

January 16, 2015
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P opened at $1,992 today. Gold is up to $1,267 per ounce. Oil is back down under $47 per barrel. Bitcoin is checking in at $210 per BTC, and the 10-year Treasury rate opened at 1.72% today. Famed Swiss economist Marc Faber went on record at a global strategy session this week saying he expected gold to go up significantly in 2015 – possibly even 30%.

Yesterday we examined the Fed’s activity since 2007 and we noticed $3.61 trillion dollars sloshing around in the financial system that didn’t exist previously. Then we put two and two together and realized the answer was four… not five as the mainstream media claims. We came to the conclusion that the entire financial system is now dependent upon exponential credit creation out of thin air and that financial destruction cometh once the credit expansion stops.

Today let’s discuss some ideas for insulating our balance sheet from the ongoing financial crisis and the inevitable crack-up on the horizon.

The first and most important thing to understand is the difference between real money and fiat money. The Fed (and other central banks) issue fiat money at will – created from nothing. Dollars, euros, yen… none of them are real money; they are all fiat. These currencies do not represent real work, savings, or wealth and they certainly are not backed by anything of substance.

Most of these currencies exist as digital units out in cyberspace but if you read one of the paper notes in circulation it is completely honest with you:

”This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private.”

That means central bank notes are really good for paying debts but that’s about the extent of it.

All of these currencies depreciate over time in terms of purchasing power because they have no intrinsic value and their supply is unlimited. Even when a currency is “strong” as the U.S. dollar is currently, it is only strong measured against other currencies. Measure the dollar against your cost of living and you will see the real picture.

The point is we can’t trust central bank money.

Which leads us to the first way to insulate your portfolio from the Fed’s carnage: convert fiat money into real money – gold and silver. Gold and silver were demonetized in the late 60’s and early 70’s and the establishment has been downplaying their significance ever since. But there is a reason every central bank in the world still stockpiles gold. Gold and silver have been money for centuries and that is not going to change in a brief fifty year time span. Maybe one day cryptocurrencies will take the torch from gold and silver but that day is not today.

It is wise to maintain an asset allocation of 10-30% in physical gold and silver bullion. Precious metals will skyrocket in price measured against fiat currency as the Fed’s financial destruction plays out but in reality they are just a store of value. Precious metals will skyrocket in price only in terms of the fiat currency that is depreciating so dramatically.

Energy and commodity stocks, especially well managed resource companies, stand to boom as the monetary madness plays out as well. This is not a long-term strategy, however, so any gains captured during the commodity boom should be converted into hard assets or blue-chip equities after they have finished falling in price. There is enormous risk in the stock market so equities should make up a smaller portion of your asset allocation: 10-15% perhaps.

Despite everything said about fiat currency above, cash should still make up a large percentage of your portfolio; probably 20-30%. Cash loses purchasing power over time but it is still the primary medium of exchange so it is necessary to remain liquid. Ideally you should keep 6-12 months worth of reserve funds in cash and any cash above that threshold can be used to acquire assets as they go on sale. And plenty of assets will go on sale when the credit expansion stops.

The remainder of your asset allocation should be in real estate, provisions, other hard assets, and anything else that improves your quality of life. With all of the unjust systems and institutions to contend with it is easy to forget most of us are far richer than the wealthiest individuals living at the beginning of the 20th century. We have central heating and air in our homes, reliable auto travel over long distances, affordable air travel to anywhere in the world, way too much entertainment, cheap access to the internet which opens the door to all manner of information/commerce/entertainment, pocket-sized computers that double as telephones, and many other modern comforts that would be considered futuristic luxuries by the wealthiest of the wealthy one hundred years ago.

After properly aligning your portfolio to weather the Fed’s financial storm, focus on aligning your life to maximize fulfillment, purpose, and peace of mind. After all, your most valuable asset is time and time cannot be measured in financial terms.

More to come,

Joe Withrow
Wayward Philosopher

For more of Joe’s thoughts on the “Great Reset” and the fiat monetary system please read “The Individual is Rising” which is available at http://www.theindividualisrising.com/. The book is also available on Amazon in both paperback and Kindle editions.

Should You Buy Gold Now?

by Jeff Clark – Hard Assets Alliance:

There’s a subset of investors who see the big picture for gold, believe in the fundamental case, and have the means to buy, but are holding off because they think gold is headed lower. By waiting, they believe they’ll get a better price.

With all due respect to those of you in that camp, I think that’s a mistake.

If one is convinced gold will be cheaper a week or month or quarter from now, it might seem prudent to wait to buy. But obviously no one knows if gold is headed lower or if it’s already bottomed. So don’t kid yourself: you may or may not get a better price.

And premiums don’t stay the same. The US Mint raised the price it charges authorized silver purchasers by a substantial 50¢ after last month’s big retreat. The price retail silver buyers paid was not as attractive as they thought it would be.

But these issues miss the bigger point. Here’s what I think is perhaps a better way to view the subject, along with how to handle the dilemma…

Gold Is Not an Investment—It’s Insurance

“A dollar is worth only 70¢ now,” my dad once told me as we worked in the back yard. “And they say it’ll only be worth 50¢ in a few years.”

It was the mid-1970s. I was helping my dad build a dirt road to our barn, and he wasn’t happy. Not about the hard work or humidity, but from what was happening to the dollar. Inflation was starting to kick into high gear, grabbing headlines that even a girl-chasing teenager could understand.

I remember being appalled by the thought of going to the store and having the clerk demand $1.30 for an item marked $1. Knowing what I know now, my thinking wasn’t that far off.

Our local paper ran a story of a blue-collar worker who had stuffed wads of dollars into the back of his gun cabinet early in his working life. The money was discovered by the family after his death. While saving money is good, the duck-hunter equivalent of “Family Mattress Bank & Trust” won’t keep your money from depreciating; the stash of $10s and $20s had lost over half its purchasing power since he’d hidden it some 30 years earlier.

About the same time the gun locker was being lined with legal tender, both of my grandfathers—unbeknownst to me at the time—bought some gold and silver coins for me and likewise stored them away. I inherited them a few years ago—and the purchasing power of the coins is still the same as it was 30 years ago, despite the price fluctuations along the way.

If gold were an investment, it might be prudent to see if you can get a better price. But it’s not. It’s lifestyle insurance. It’s an alternate currency that will withstand the inevitable fallout of government excess, the start of which grows closer by the day. It is purchasing-power protection—protection that you and I may use sooner than we’d like.

You might argue that you always try to get the best price when you buy auto insurance and life insurance. That’s true—but the difference is that you shop among different brokers for the best price; you don’t put off the decision because you read somewhere the insurance industry might lower its rates at some point in the future.

So, what to do?

Don’t “Buy” Gold—Accumulate It

Neither you nor I nor anyone else knows exactly when the very best price for gold will occur. But since it’s an increasingly critical form of insurance in today’s world, the thing to do is to take a portion of your dollars earmarked for gold and buy some now, but keep some powder dry for the next potential dip. That way you’ve got a good price in case the bottom is in, but still have some cash available if the price falls lower. Then buy another tranche next week or next month or next quarter—whatever suits your cash flow and financial plan—but make it a regular occurrence until you have the full allotment you want.

This is exactly how central banks buy.

Central banks aren’t trying to snag the bottom. They’re focused on how many ounces they own.

Further, almost no institutional investor or money manager buys in one lump sum. They accumulate.
Our focus should be the same. Our amounts are a lot less, of course, but the point is to buy in regular tranches, working toward our allocation goal.

I cringe when I hear people say they’re waiting for a better price. What if the market takes off higher or simply stops falling—then what?

Start your accumulation plan today. Heck, you can even use the MetalStream service to buy automatically each month, and the amounts can be adjusted each time if you want. Just log into your Hard Assets Alliance account and once logged in, click the MetalStream signup button to get started.

In a short period, you’ll have a nice stash of hard assets purchased via dollar cost averaging (i.e., at the best cost basis you could hope to achieve).

Whatever you do, start now. Then keep going.

Article originally posted in the December issue of Smart Metals Investor at HardAssetsAlliance.com.

The Case for Gold and Silver Bullion

submitted by jwithrow.

While gold and silver prices have declined in 2013, the fundamental case for owning gold and silver bullion is still growing.

The mainstream media has been quick to pronounce the death of the precious metals as an asset class with their evidence being the recent price depreciation of both gold and silver. Theirs is a very short term and self-serving view; the long term fundamentals have not changed.

The Federal Reserve did taper its money printing, but guess what? The creature from Jekyll Island is still creating $75 billion new dollars every single month to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities. Meanwhile, Congress has quietly done away with the sequester spending ‘cuts’ and will continue to spend gargantuan amounts of money in 2014 – money they do not have.

What’s so humorous about this is the fact that the sequester did not cut any real spending in the first place – it simply curtailed proposed future spending increases. We suppose the thought of curtailed spending increases kept the Congress critters up too late at night.

And it’s not just the U.S.

Japan has promised to continue to keep their central bank money printer on turbo gear. Estimates suggest that the U.S. and Japan together will create nearly $2 trillion over the next 12 month period. Meanwhile, the Eurozone experiment is still on the verge of blowing up and not one single G-20 country operates with a balanced budget.

Simply put, the economies of the developed world have run up massive amounts of debt that cannot possibly be paid back in full. The massive debt has been serviced primarily by central bank funny money up to this point, but we are quite sure that the funny money policies cannot possibly last forever. And the longer the printing presses continue to run, the less valuable our paper currencies will be.

That’s why we adamantly believe that gold and silver bullion will be a vital part of a diversified portfolio in the coming years as the economic endgame of central bank funny money policy plays out.

Now, we don’t think it would be prudent to hold 100% of one’s assets in gold and silver. We look at the precious metals more as insurance against destructive monetary policies. Oh, and we should probably clarify that we mean physical gold and silver bullion in your possession, not an ETF.

So if you expect the value of your paper currency to increase then you may not be interested in holding gold or silver bullion. But if you expect the value of your paper currency to decrease then purchasing gold and silver bullion may be very wise. Given the long term fundamentals, we would suggest that the value of our paper currency is ultimately only going to go in one direction.

And that direction is back to paper currency’s inherent value…