government debt Archives

The Individual is Rising: 2nd Edition

submitted by jwithrow.

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
The Individual is Rising: 2nd Edition

September 4, 2015
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P closed out Thursday at $1,946. Gold closed at $1,124 per ounce. Oil closed up at $46.75 per barrel, and the 10-year Treasury rate closed at 2.19%. Bitcoin is trading around $230 per BTC today.

Dear Journal,

Wife Rachel took it upon herself to berate me for my past few journal entries. She said they were too gloomy. She also berated me for failing to provide any light-hearted family updates. As any good husband would, I flipped the selective hearing switch on and pretended not to hear her.

After a couple years of marriage I have learned that there are times to trust her judgment and times to ignore it. Choosing what to order from a restaurant is a good time to discount her judgment, for example. Despite my unwelcomed reminders, she has a tendency to order a meal completely unrelated to the theme of the restaurant. I am quite sure the chef is shaking his head when her order comes in. “Hamburger and french fries, are you kidding me? This is an authentic Italian joint!”, he exclaims in the kitchen. I just chuckle to myself: At least she ordered a glass of Chianti.

Relating to and connecting with other people is her forte, however, so despite outward appearances I listen carefully when she advises me on such matters. Her emotional intelligence never ceases to amaze me. Maybe it’s just a woman thing, but I suspect years of studying finance and economics hasn’t help improve my own EI much, either. So if Rachel says I should incorporate more light-hearted matters into my writing then I feel compelled to talk about her poor menu choices. Thanks honey!

Moving on to another fun topic; I launched the second edition of The Individual is Rising this week. The Kindle format will be free on Amazon all day today, and then will be discounted at $2.99 all next week. Continue reading “The Individual is Rising: 2nd Edition”

Risk Update: Belief That Central Bank Methods Work

by Jeff Clark – Hard Assets Alliance :

It’s painfully clear that Swiss monetary policy failed to work as planned—they pegged their currency to the euro just three years earlier and were unable to sustain it. On top of that, the SNB now charges commercial depositors 0.75% for the privilege of holding their money! Even some retail and private banks have begun to apply the negative rates on large customer deposits.

And yet they’re not the only country with negative interest rates: Two-year government bonds are also negative in…

• Germany
• Finland
• Austria
• Denmark
• France
• Holland
• Belgium
• Slovakia
• Sweden
• Japan

According to the Financial Times, there is now $3.6 trillion of government debt around the world with negative interest rates!

Meanwhile, Japan continues to inject $700 billion a year into their financial system, which equals 12% of their GDP. Their debt now exceeds 250% of GDP, and the government uses more than 25% of tax revenue just to pay the interest on that debt!

Then the ECB unveiled an expanded program where it will increase asset purchases to €60 billion a month through at least September 2016, its biggest push yet, to fend off deflation and revive the economy. So, why are they expanding the program when the prior money-printing efforts didn’t work? What will they do if bigger isn’t better and the program continues to fail?

Central bankers are taking the easy way out, because printing money (QE) reduces the incentive for governments to make structural reforms. This tells us that the ongoing experiments by central bankers—the largest such experiments ever conducted in history—will not accomplish what they had hoped and will hand us some very unpleasant consequences.

We live in a central bank-controlled world more than ever before, yet the odds of central planners steering us out of the corner they’ve painted us all into are remote. The gold you hold will offer a measure of protection against the fallout when it becomes obvious to the mainstream that failure is likely.

Article originally posted in the February issue of Smart Metals Investor at HardAssetsAlliance.com.

How the Fed Grows Government

by Hunter Hastings – Mises Daily
Article originally published in the January 2015 issue of BankNotes

We are told that elections are important, but the most powerful state institution, the central bank, is totally out of reach of the voter.

Ludwig von Mises viewed democracy as a utilitarian concept. It was the form of political organization that allowed the majority to change the government without violent revolution. In Socialism, Mises writes “This it achieves by making the organs of the state legally dependent on the will of the majority of the moment.” He identified this form of political process as an essential enabler of capitalism and market exchange.

Mises extended this concept of utilitarian democracy to citizens’ control of the budget of the state, which they achieve by voting for the level of taxation that they deem to be appropriate. Otherwise, “if it is unnecessary to adjust the amount of expenditure to the means available, there is no limit to the spending of the great god State.” (Planning for Freedom, p. 90).

Today, this utilitarian function of democracy, and the concept of citizens’ limitations on government mission and government spending, has been taken away by the state via the creation and subsequent actions of central banks. The state carefully created a central bank that is independent of the voters and unaffected by the choices citizens express via the institutions of democracy. In the case of the US Federal Reserve, for example, the Board of Governors state that the Federal Reserve System “is considered an independent central bank because its monetary policy decisions do not have to be approved by the President or anyone else in the executive or legislative branches of government, it does not receive funding appropriated by the Congress, and the terms of the members of the Board of Governors span multiple presidential and congressional terms.”

Independent from Voters, But Not from Politicians

Importantly, the central bank is independent of the citizens in this way, but, in practice, not independent of politicians. Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, is quoted as asserting, “I never said the central bank is independent,” alluding to similar statements in two books he has written, and pointing to one-sided political pressure significantly limiting the FOMC’s range of discretion.

This institutionally independent, but politically directed central bank spearheads a process that enables largely unlimited government spending. It expands credit and enables fiat money, which is produced without practical limitation. Fiat money enables government to issue debt, which, at least so far, also has been pursued without restraint. The unlimited government debt enables unrestrained growth in government spending. The citizenry has no power to change this through any voting mechanism.

Thus, the state is set free from having to collect tax revenue before it can spend, and as Mises explained, in such a case, there is no limitation on government at all:

The government has but one source of revenue — taxes. No taxation is legal without parliamentary consent. But if the government has other sources of income it can free itself from this control.

In other words, when faced with the possibility of voter reprisals, members of Congress are reluctant to raise taxes. But if government spending no longer necessitates taxes, government becomes much more free to spend.

Without restraints on government spending, there are no restraints on government’s mission, or on the growth in the bureaucracy that administers the spending. The result is a continuous increase in regulations, and a continuous expansion of state power.

Has The Central Bank Limited Itself?

In the one hundred years since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, US federal government spending has grown from $15.9 billion to a budgeted $3,778 billion in 2014 (a number we now refer to as $3.8 trillion to make the numerator seem less egregious). Spending as a percentage of GDP has advanced from 7.5 percent to 41.6 percent over the same period. A comparison of regulation growth is more difficult, but over 80,000 pages are published in the Federal Register annually today, versus less than 5,000 annually in 1936.

The evidence, therefore, is that voting makes no difference to this lava flow of spending and regulation. Whatever the will of the majority of the moment, government spending and government power will continue to expand, with consequent reduction in the economic growth that is the primary goal of the society that is being governed.

John Locke opined that, when governments “act contrary to the end for which they were constituted,” they are at a “state of war” with the citizens, and resistance is lawful. (Two Treatises of Government, p. 74). The theory and practice of unhampered markets and individual liberty are particularly relevant at election time.

Hunter Hastings is a member of the Mises Institute, a business consultant, and an adjunct faculty member at Hult International Business School

Please see the January 2015 issue of BankNotes for this article and others like it.

The Case for Gold

submitted by jwithrow.

“The process [of debauching the currency] engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.” – John Maynard Keynes

This chart illustrates the construct of the global financial system denominated in U.S. dollars.

There is an estimated 171,000 tons of physical gold bullion currently in existence which is $7 trillion if priced at $1,300 per ounce. Physical gold served the global financial system as an anchor in some capacity from the Industrial Revolution all the way up until 1971.

The U.S. dollar became the sole anchor of the international monetary system in 1971 and there is now approximately $25 trillion sitting in cash globally. Additionally, global equity markets are valued at roughly $57.5 trillion and global investable real estate valuations are roughly $70 trillion.

Global debt has reached $175 trillion with governments being the biggest debtors. This number does not include all of the unfunded liabilities accrued by the social welfare states of the world.

Dwarfing all other U.S. dollar denominated asset classes is the over-the-counter derivatives market. According to the BIS, OTC derivatives total $639 trillion with interest rate derivatives being the largest category by far.

So there is approximately $1,028 trillion worth of U.S. dollar denominated global assets in existence and physical gold, the market’s choice for money over several centuries, makes up less than 1% of total global assets.

Gold is the only asset on this chart that has no counterparty risk meaning there are no other contractual parties involved when you hold physical gold.

The U.S. dollar is issued and managed by the Federal Reserve and the Fed can (and does) reduce the value of the dollar simply by creating more dollars. Equity values obviously depend on the particular company’s financial performance. Real estate investments depend on a tenant to make payments in a timely fashion. The counterparty to debt is the debtor who must make timely payments and the debtor typically has counterparties as well. Derivatives, the largest global asset class, come with a complex web of counterparties that are virtually impossible to predict.

Global dollar denominated assets have been able to balloon up to $1,028 almost exclusively because of 40+ years of constant credit and credit-based money expansion. One day credit will have to contract and that $1,028 trillion figure will dissipate rather quickly. Where do you think capital will fly to when that day comes?

My bet is physical gold.

Image Source: Global Precious Metals

The Middle-Class is Fading

submitted by jwithrow.

The middle-class is fading. Fast.

The jobs that have been lost since the financial system teetered on implosion in 2008 have not come back. Those jobs are not coming back. More education won’t bring them back. More laws won’t bring them back.

The government’s job report says that more and more jobs are being created, but guess what? They are mostly low paid part-time or temporary jobs; they are not the middle management jobs in the high rise buildings.

As for why the middle-class is being wiped out, it’s no mystery. This very same scenario has occurred all throughout history. One can look back as far as the time of the Roman Empire and see that there is nothing new under the sun. History rhymes and those ignorant of history are doomed to repeat its mistakes.

You see, every time the currency of the land has been inflated and debased, the middle-class has been destroyed. Inflation transfers value from those who must work to earn currency to those who control the currency supply.

They don’t tell you this in school. They don’t tell you this in college. They don’t even tell you this if you major in finance or economics. They probably don’t know themselves. So most people never understand what is happening. Their paycheck gets bigger and bigger so they can’t figure out why they can never get ahead. They don’t realize that their bigger paycheck is buying less and less. They don’t understand the difference between nominal income and real income.

In Roman times it was the government that controlled the currency supply. The Romans would collect taxes and tributes from citizens and conquered peoples and they would then melt the precious metal coins and add in cheaper metals such as copper to re-mint more coins of lower value. They would then pay the Roman army with these cheaper coins and pretend that they had the same value as before. The general market caught on to this process and began to charge higher prices for food and goods in response. The middle-class was destroyed over time and eventually the economy collapsed. Then the Empire fell.

In modern times it is the Federal Reserve and the other central banks of the world that control the currency supply. They do this by simply creating currency units from nothing and using the new currency as they see fit. They inject some of this new currency into the banking system, they use some of the new currency to buy government debt, and they inject some of the new currency into the IMF and foreign central banks. This directly leads to more and more debt and an increase in consumer prices across the board.

They are printing currency at will so why is the middle-class working so hard for 2% annual raises?

The rules of the game have changed and those unable to recognize this and adjust accordingly will be wiped out with the middle-class – just as has happened throughout history.

The Earth Belongs to the Living, Not the Dead

By: Paul Rosenberg, Freemansperspective.com

What if your grandfather had gone on a wild spending binge, long before you were born, and put himself millions of dollars in debt to people who knew he could never pay? Would it be your obligation to work double-shifts all your life to pay that debt back? And if you died before paying it off, would it become your baby’s obligation?

I think most of us would answer those questions with a resounding “No way!” As well we should. We are not and should not be slaves to the past – slaves to actions we never took and for which we had no possible means of consent.

On September 6th, 1789, in the very first year of the US Constitution, Thomas Jefferson endorsed precisely this conclusion in a letter he wrote to James Madison:

I say, the earth belongs to each of these generations during its course, fully and in its own right. The second generation receives it clear of the debts and encumbrances of the first, the third of the second, and so on.

For if the first could charge it with a debt, then the earth would belong to the dead and not to the living generation.

He wrote the same thing to John Wayles Eppes twenty-four years later, in June of 1813:

The earth belongs to the living, not to the dead.

To lay debt upon the unborn is thoroughly immoral. To try to enforce such a debt is thoroughly criminal.

Your Child or Grandchild

This conversation is critically important, because each child born in the US is born massively indebted. Using $200 trillion to represent the promises already made to people now living (some estimates are higher) and assuming a population of 310 million, that comes to $645,161 of debt, by the time your child reaches his cradle. If you expect your child to become a productive person, his or her share will be roughly twice that amount, or approximately $1.3 million.

(The US government is not unique in this regard, by the way. I use the US example, because it’s easier and because most of my readers seem to be Americans.)

Would you sign papers loading your baby with such a debt?

I am stating these facts in personal terms to cut through the usual BS that passes for public discourse. I am also using the voices of “founding fathers,” partly because it undercuts the fraudulent government story that “we’re following the wisdom of the founders.” Beside, we’re talking about real persons here. Making it personal is not manipulative, but accurate. To make it amorphous would be manipulative.

And while I’m on the subject of founding fathers, here’s something George Washington wrote in a letter to James Madison, also in 1789:

No generation has a right to contract debts greater than can be paid off during the course of its own existence.

I think that’s a very clear and very moral expression. It is not, however, what has been done.

A group formed recently under the phrase, “Not our debt.” I know nothing about the group, but their phrase is entirely correct. The debt of the US government does not belong to us, and we have no moral obligation to repay it.

Most of us do pay something toward that debt (which grows exponentially, just the same), but we should stay very clear as to why we pay. That reason, of course, is naked force, as in coercion and violence. There is no morality to it, except the morality that some people might invent, either to salve their consciences or as sycophants to power. (Though most just do what everyone else does, never considering why.)

My advice is this: Do whatever you want as far as paying under threat, but don’t ever be confused about the morality of this situation. This is a swindle of gargantuan proportions. And that’s precisely what Thomas Jefferson believed. You can see this in a letter he wrote to John Taylor, dated May 28, 1816:

The principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling posterity on a large scale.

Do what you need to do, but don’t ever think you have a moral responsibility to pay that kind of debt.

Paul Rosenberg

[Editor’s Note: Paul Rosenberg is the outside-the-Matrix author of FreemansPerspective.com, a site dedicated to economic freedom, personal independence and privacy. He is also the author of The Great Calendar, a report that breaks down our complex world into an easy-to-understand model. Click here to get your free copy.]