gold and silver Archives

Bear Market Extremes Equals Bull Market Wealth

by Jeff Clark – Hard Assets Alliance:

I want to congratulate you.

Gold and silver have been in a downtrend for over three years. And yet you’ve held on.

In spite of violent selloffs and a prolonged bear turn in the market, you’ve been patient. You see the big picture. You’ve steeled your emotions and rebuffed the negative mantra from the mainstream. You get it. You understand that sooner or later the fiscal and monetary path the world has embraced and praised won’t work.

And you will soon be rewarded. I can’t give you a date, but I can tell you it’s a question of when, not if.

How can I make such a claim?

History.

The Gold Market at Extremes

I measured the duration and degree of every bear market in gold and silver in modern history and compared them to our current situation. It’s quite revealing.

In each chart, the black line represents our current bear market. Here are the data for gold since the early 1970s:

Gold has endured deeper selloffs, but as you can see, it’s one of the longest on record. And if the price were to slip further and close below $1,142 (on a fix basis), it would officially be the longest bear market in modern history. I’ll also point out that gold declined 1.8% last year, making 2013/2014 the first back-to-back annual loss since 1997/1998.

Silver’s performance is even more dramatic. Since the 1960s, only one bear market has registered a bigger price decline, and only two were longer (assuming the bottom was $15.28 on November 6 last year).

These data all point to a bear market that has reached an extreme level.

That’s not to say prices can’t go lower, but history suggests that the end to the downtrend is close, if not already behind us. Your patience will soon get a vacation.

But does that mean the price is ready to take off again?

Gold Is Insurance, Not an Investment

While you can sell gold for a profit or a loss like any other investment, the most accurate way to view gold is as an alternate currency—the only one history has shown to provide monetary protection during a major currency devaluation. And the ongoing currency dilution around the globe today is comparable to some of the most notorious in history.

Yes, I think we’ll all make a lot of money in our HAA accounts. But gold’s primary role as insurance is more important right now.

Consider the risks we investors and consumers face:

• What if banks begin lending out the money the Fed has loaned them?

• What if the Fed decides it needs another round of QE, regardless of what they call it?

• What if interest rates rise, whether initiated by the Fed or pushed higher by the markets?

• What happens when—not if—the stock market enters a correction and mainstream investors begin losing money? What if the average investor remembers 2008 and decides to bail? How will the Fed react?

• What will be the mainstream reaction if the real estate market goes flat or reverses? How would the Fed respond?

• What happens if the economy legitimately grows—and kickstarts inflation?

• What happens if the debt load overwhelms the Fed’s printing efforts? Will they give up or double down?

• What if a developed country selectively or fully defaults on its debt?

• What if we reach a tipping point where other countries tire of the nonstop currency dilution and slow or reverse their treasury purchases?

• What happens if the markets lose confidence in the Fed or other central banks’ ability to manage their respective economies and markets?

• What if politicians don’t institute serious fiscal reforms, and Fed interventions are reduced to nothing more than monetizing deficit spending by causing inflation?

• How would global central bankers respond if deflation takes root?

• What happens if the geopolitical conflicts deteriorate and lead to war?

• What happens when—not if—control of the gold market shifts to China, away from North America?

The point is that we face increased systemic risk. Central bankers have painted themselves into a corner, and there is no easy exit from their policy mistakes. Since these issues have not been dealt with effectively, and political leaders show no sign of doing so, systemic risk has greatly increased. Sooner or later there must be a reckoning—the math doesn’t work, and history has demonstrated the outcome of such fiscal setups numerous times. Certainly, more caution is warranted than what most mainstream commentators suggest.

This is a major reason why I continue to buy gold and silver, and why I recommend you do, too. It’s not a speculation on rapid gains, but essential wealth insurance. In fact, the next bull market in gold will likely be spurred by one or more of the above risks materializing.

So instead of wondering if the gold price has bottomed, I recommend asking these questions:

• How much have you personally allocated to precious metals to offset the risk of a currency or similar crisis of major proportion? The need for monetary insurance against those risks is high, and rising. Given the elevated risk, a commensurate level of insurance is necessary. Fire insurance is designed to provide enough funds to rebuild your entire home, not just the basement. So one ounce of gold or one tube of silver won’t cut it.

• Does your portfolio stand on a foundation of mostly paper assets? If stocks and bonds comprise the lion’s share of your investments, your overall investment risk is very high.

• How correlated are your investments to the stock market? If mainstream investments decline, how will your overall portfolio be impacted? Gold and the S&P are typically negatively correlated; with both at extremes, now is a good time to make sure you strike the right balance.

• Have you stored some assets outside your political jurisdiction? The prospect of capital controls has grown.

In other words, it is less about the exact price and date of the bottom for this market and more about how you will protect yourself against the risks outlined above—they are real, in spite of what we read in mainstream headlines. If any transpire, they will wreak havoc on your investment portfolio and your ability to maintain your current lifestyle. That’s worth insuring.

In the meantime, the extreme nature of the current bear market means that current prices are a potentially life-changing opportunity.

Join me in creating bull market wealth—by taking advantage of current bear market prices.

Article originally posted in the January issue of Smart Metals Investor at HardAssetsAlliance.com.

How to Insulate Your Portfolio from the Fed’s Financial Destruction

submitted by jwithrow.

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
How to Insulate Your Portfolio from the Fed’s Financial Destruction

January 16, 2015
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P opened at $1,992 today. Gold is up to $1,267 per ounce. Oil is back down under $47 per barrel. Bitcoin is checking in at $210 per BTC, and the 10-year Treasury rate opened at 1.72% today. Famed Swiss economist Marc Faber went on record at a global strategy session this week saying he expected gold to go up significantly in 2015 – possibly even 30%.

Yesterday we examined the Fed’s activity since 2007 and we noticed $3.61 trillion dollars sloshing around in the financial system that didn’t exist previously. Then we put two and two together and realized the answer was four… not five as the mainstream media claims. We came to the conclusion that the entire financial system is now dependent upon exponential credit creation out of thin air and that financial destruction cometh once the credit expansion stops.

Today let’s discuss some ideas for insulating our balance sheet from the ongoing financial crisis and the inevitable crack-up on the horizon.

The first and most important thing to understand is the difference between real money and fiat money. The Fed (and other central banks) issue fiat money at will – created from nothing. Dollars, euros, yen… none of them are real money; they are all fiat. These currencies do not represent real work, savings, or wealth and they certainly are not backed by anything of substance.

Most of these currencies exist as digital units out in cyberspace but if you read one of the paper notes in circulation it is completely honest with you:

”This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private.”

That means central bank notes are really good for paying debts but that’s about the extent of it.

All of these currencies depreciate over time in terms of purchasing power because they have no intrinsic value and their supply is unlimited. Even when a currency is “strong” as the U.S. dollar is currently, it is only strong measured against other currencies. Measure the dollar against your cost of living and you will see the real picture.

The point is we can’t trust central bank money.

Which leads us to the first way to insulate your portfolio from the Fed’s carnage: convert fiat money into real money – gold and silver. Gold and silver were demonetized in the late 60’s and early 70’s and the establishment has been downplaying their significance ever since. But there is a reason every central bank in the world still stockpiles gold. Gold and silver have been money for centuries and that is not going to change in a brief fifty year time span. Maybe one day cryptocurrencies will take the torch from gold and silver but that day is not today.

It is wise to maintain an asset allocation of 10-30% in physical gold and silver bullion. Precious metals will skyrocket in price measured against fiat currency as the Fed’s financial destruction plays out but in reality they are just a store of value. Precious metals will skyrocket in price only in terms of the fiat currency that is depreciating so dramatically.

Energy and commodity stocks, especially well managed resource companies, stand to boom as the monetary madness plays out as well. This is not a long-term strategy, however, so any gains captured during the commodity boom should be converted into hard assets or blue-chip equities after they have finished falling in price. There is enormous risk in the stock market so equities should make up a smaller portion of your asset allocation: 10-15% perhaps.

Despite everything said about fiat currency above, cash should still make up a large percentage of your portfolio; probably 20-30%. Cash loses purchasing power over time but it is still the primary medium of exchange so it is necessary to remain liquid. Ideally you should keep 6-12 months worth of reserve funds in cash and any cash above that threshold can be used to acquire assets as they go on sale. And plenty of assets will go on sale when the credit expansion stops.

The remainder of your asset allocation should be in real estate, provisions, other hard assets, and anything else that improves your quality of life. With all of the unjust systems and institutions to contend with it is easy to forget most of us are far richer than the wealthiest individuals living at the beginning of the 20th century. We have central heating and air in our homes, reliable auto travel over long distances, affordable air travel to anywhere in the world, way too much entertainment, cheap access to the internet which opens the door to all manner of information/commerce/entertainment, pocket-sized computers that double as telephones, and many other modern comforts that would be considered futuristic luxuries by the wealthiest of the wealthy one hundred years ago.

After properly aligning your portfolio to weather the Fed’s financial storm, focus on aligning your life to maximize fulfillment, purpose, and peace of mind. After all, your most valuable asset is time and time cannot be measured in financial terms.

More to come,

Joe Withrow
Wayward Philosopher

For more of Joe’s thoughts on the “Great Reset” and the fiat monetary system please read “The Individual is Rising” which is available at http://www.theindividualisrising.com/. The book is also available on Amazon in both paperback and Kindle editions.

Investing in Gold and Silver Bullion

submitted by jwithrow.

Investing in gold and silver bullion is, believe it or not, much easier than investing in stocks, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, or bonds.

If the concept of investing in gold and silver seems strange to you, it is only because the financial media has marginalized the precious metals in order to sell more paper equities and the mainstream media has associated the precious metals with paranoid dooms-dayers. And apparently you haven’t been reading our little blog here.

You see, gold is money. It has been for all of recorded history.

You can’t pay your taxes with gold because your government knows that no one would want government currency if you could. And then your government would be in big trouble.

We talk about the ‘why’ in more detail here and here so now let’s look at the ‘how’.

Gold and silver bullion is available in the form of coins and bars of varying weights and measures and purchases can be made either in person at a reputable coin dealer or online through an internet dealer.

The advantage of buying from a local coin dealer is that you can pay in cash anonymously and you can potentially develop a working relationship with the dealer. The downside is that you will have to pay your state sales tax on all bullion purchases made at a local dealer.

The advantage of buying online is that you don’t have to leave your home and you can avoid the state sales tax (for the time being, anyway). The downside is that you cannot purchase anonymously and there is a delay between purchase and delivery.

Gold and silver bullion can also be sold back to the same dealers – be sure to research their individual policy.

The IRS currently classifies precious metal bullion as a collectible and thus taxes the gain on sale at the collectible rate which is 28%. Keep this in mind if you choose to invest in gold and silver bullion, especially if you sacrifice anonymity and purchase online. Also, be sure to stay updated on the current tax laws regarding gold and silver bullion as they could change at any given time.

There are many strategies when it comes to investing in gold and silver but a general rule of thumb is to stay away from unique collectibles (numismatics) unless you are very knowledgeable in the field. The reason being is that numismatics carry a much higher premium than standard bullion from well-known mints but there is a much smaller market for these rare coins and thus they are much less liquid.

Our favorite strategy is to dollar-cost-average into both gold and silver periodically at the ratio of one American Gold Eagle to twenty American Silver Eagles.

Hidden Secrets of Money Primer Part 2

submitted by jwithrow.

Sound Money

submitted by jwithrow.

The most important facet of free market capitalism is sound money. If you don’t have sound money then you don’t have free market capitalism – you have something else.

Sound money is simply money that serves as a reliable store of value. Put another way, sound money is money that does not constantly lose its purchasing power. Sound money affords one a reasonable expectation that one unit of money today will buy the same amount of goods and services as one unit of money tomorrow. And next month. And ten years from now.

What a novel concept!

Anyone who has taken a finance course is familiar with the time value of money principle. In finance class, we learn to discount our money over time based on the inflation rate. We are taught, correctly, that present dollars are worth more than future dollars.

What we are not taught is that this is a deformation of free market capitalism!

The general market has chosen gold and silver to serve as money throughout most of history because the precious metals are particularly well suited for this purpose: they are limited in supply, they have functional utility outside of the monetary system, and, unlike our money today, they cannot be created from nothing.

Make no mistake about it, that’s where our money comes from today: nothing. It is created from nothing and then loaned into existence at interest. See the Hidden Secrets of Money video series for a more thorough examination of our money.

You see, money should not be a function of government nor should it be a function of a central bank behind closed doors. And it certainly shouldn’t be created from nothing. This is why the U.S. Constitution only authorizes gold and silver as legal tender; the Founders knew well the virtues of sound money and the dangers of fiat currency.

Did you know that the U.S. dollar was defined by the Coinage Act of 1792 to be 371.25 grains of fine silver? This act set the standard weight and measure of the dollar in terms of silver and individuals in the market were still free to accept or reject coins of differing weights and measures as they saw fit.

But we digress.

Here is why sound money is important to you:

Every dollar to your name is constantly losing value and there is no way for you to predict how much value your savings will lose over time.

This is a direct result of the monetary system that is in place whereby central banks create money from nothing and then lend that money to governments and to commercial banks at interest. That money then enters the economy when governments spend it and when commercial banks lend it out to customers. This is done constantly and it is why your money constantly loses value. Such a system has a profound impact on people from every walk of life.

How can we accurately plan for anything long-term if our money is constantly losing value? We can only guess.

What we do know from history is that sound money leads to a stable economy while fiat money leads to booms and busts.

The general market prefers the former while big government prefers the latter.

For more information on the sound money principle see the article links below. For a lot more information on sound money and monetary history see the book links below.

The Principle of Sound Money

The Simplicity of Sound Money

An Introduction to Sound Money

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Steps to Self-Sufficiency

submitted by jwithrow.

This list is certainly not comprehensive but it is our hope that it serves as food for thought.

1. Become money-conscious

Before you can begin to create self-sufficiency and build wealth, you must become money-conscious. Wealth does not come to those who are careless or lazy and it does not come overnight with a stroke of luck. You must begin to recognize that nearly everything that you do has an impact on your self-sufficiency and accumulation of wealth. You must begin to recognize the rules of the universe as it relates to money. And you must begin to take action immediately. Begin to track your expenses tirelessly and eliminate unnecessary spending where possible. This does not require you to become “cheap” but it does require frugality. Once you become money-conscious you will identify ways to reduce your expenses and you will free up additional income to use towards the attainment of self-sufficiency.

2. Consider contributing to a 401(k) if your employer matches your contribution

After assessing your income and expenses and getting your financial house in order, consider contributing to a 401(k) up to the employer match percentage each month. It is important to review the vesting requirements (time of employment required before you can cash out the matching contributions) and determine whether or not you will be at this company for that length of time before deciding to contribute to the plan. The employer match will serve to multiply your deferred savings and your 401(k) contribution will reduce your taxable income. We would not recommend contributing any more than the employer match rate as 401(k) plans are very limited and the rest of your income would better serve you elsewhere. Be aware of the fact that you will have to pay a 10% penalty to the IRS if you cash out the 401(k) prior to retirement but the tax shelter provided will serve to offset some of this penalty. With that said, we would suggest that a 401(k) plan is not a very strong part of a retirement plan and that the funds accumulated would probably better serve you as capital to be deployed once you have developed a more specific investment plan. The 401(k) will allow you to automatically put aside a very small amount of income for use once you are farther along on your road to financial freedom. This vehicle may not be suitable for everyone, but it may be useful if you are still working on creating a sound investment or business plan.

3. Develop a plan to eliminate all consumer debt

You must eliminate all consumer debt before you can effectively begin to build wealth and your first target should be credit card debt. The interest rate on your credit card, in all likelihood, will far outweigh any return on investment that you could consistently generate with your money. So develop a plan to pay all credit card debt off as soon as possible. The most effective way to do this is to determine exactly what dollar amount you can afford to pay towards your credit card debt with each paycheck, and to pay that amount immediately as soon as your paycheck is received. Do not leave yourself short on other bills but make sure that you are paying a sizeable chunk of debt down each month at the same time. If you have multiple credit cards then you should pay the card with the highest interest rate off first. Once all credit card debt is eliminated, move on to the next highest interest rate obligation that you have. The one exception to paying down the highest interest rate debt first is if you have a smaller obligation that could be paid off very quickly in order to free up additional cash flow that could then be directed towards the higher interest debt. While eliminating consumer debt may seem like a long and slow process, be patient and persistent. Imagine a world in which you have no consumer debt to pay and imagine how much extra money you will have at your disposal once you are free of consumer debt.

4. Develop a plan to eliminate or reduce mortgage debt

This step could possibly be interchanged with the next steps depending on your situation but the idea is to either eliminate or reduce your monthly mortgage debt significantly now that you have additional free cash flow from eliminating consumer debt. While the many possibilities cannot be described in this article due to the variety and complexity of mortgage types, we do discuss mortgages in more detail here. Broadly speaking, assess your mortgage and determine if an action can be taken to enhance your financial situation (reducing the LTV, refinancing, etc).

5. Build a six month cash reserve

If you have not already built a cash reserve then now is the time to do so (if you have dependents then you may want to consider making this step two). A cash reserve should be extremely liquid so that you have access to the money in a timely manner in case of emergency. A standard checking account would serve this purpose. Interest bearing savings or money market accounts are acceptable choices although you can rest assured that the interest paid on these accounts will be negligible. Cash under the pillow is another option. Gold or silver bullion could be a wise choice but you will probably want to have direct and immediate access to some cash. While six months is a good benchmark, you could consider building a one year cash reserve as well. Just make sure that you are prepared to sustain yourself and meet obligations in case of an emergency.

6. Set up an IBC whole life insurance policy

If you are unfamiliar with the IBC (Infinite Banking Concept) strategy then this step will require some research before you are comfortable with the idea. Now, do not be put off by seeing this recommendation for ‘life insurance’ – learning about an IBC policy will completely shatter your preconceived notions about what life insurance can do. The reason you have not heard about this type of policy before is because Wall Street would go out of business very quickly if the masses learned and implemented this financial strategy. An IBC policy is about building an ever-growing pool of capital in a way that is advantageous in both the tax and liability realms. The IBC strategy is not about death benefits and it is not about rates of return – these are just bonuses.

When structured properly, IBC policies allow you to funnel income into the policy rather than a bank account. Unlike your bank account, your life insurance cash value is secure from creditors, bail-ins, and bank runs. The cash value also generates a small rate of return without sacrificing liquidity – you can access your cash value tax free at any time for any reason. The implementation of this strategy does require a long-term commitment because it will take on average 8-10 years before an IBC policy ‘breaks even’ internally (cash value equals premium outlay).

Please feel free to email us if you would like more information on this concept.

7. Build diversified income streams in fields that interest you

At this point you have done your due diligence and are in a financial position that will allow you to work on pursuing income in ways that are enjoyable to you. If you are already engaged in work that is satisfying and meaningful to you then this step may not be relevant to you. But if you are like most of us who simply tolerate or maybe despise our job then now is the time to make changes. And even if you are content in your current profession it may be wise to build side businesses as economic conditions are tentative at best at this juncture in time.

Start by deciding what it is that you would like to do with your time and then develop a plan to generate income from your chosen field. While this is an embarrassingly simplistic statement, it is entirely possible to generate income from any good or service for which there is a market. Build a big business. Build several small businesses. Buy rental properties. Become a freelancer in your areas of expertise. Whatever your plan is, the important thing is to engage in work that is enjoyable and meaningful to you – income is useless if it comes with the sacrifice of happiness.

8. Convert income into real assets

Once you have developed a source or sources of stable income then it is time to convert this income into real assets. The most widely accepted choices would be gold and silver bullion, real estate, and/or farm land but you are not limited to these. Real assets could also be things that increase your household’s self sustainability such as alternative energy sources or a family garden. You could also choose more speculative items such as art work or a wine collection but these assets would be much less liquid and thus much more risky (well, the wine would be liquid but in a different kind of way). If you venture into the realm of these speculative investments then make sure that you have a portfolio consisting of the more widely accepted assets as well.

Conclusion:

Note that we wittingly omitted any mention of investing in paper equities (stocks, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, bonds). The first reason for this is that the financial services industry has sold this type of investment as the only one suitable for retirement which is a lie. There may be a place for this type of investment within your portfolio but it will require much diligence and should serve only as one asset class amongst several within your portfolio. Holding a mixture of stocks across different industries is said by the experts to be the key to diversifying your portfolio. We would suggest that holding a mixture of stocks, real estate, gold and silver bullion, etc. would be the key to a diversified portfolio and that holding only paper equities would be terribly risky. So if you do choose to include equity investments in your portfolio please make sure that you do your research and that you also diversify amongst other, more tangible asset classes as well.

Think of real assets as a ‘backing’ to the cash value of your IBC whole life insurance policy that we discussed in step 6. By building a significant pool of capital (IBC policy) and solidifying it with real assets you are doing exactly what the elite central banks do – except without resorting to fraud. The central banks, Wall Street, and the power elite in general have done a wonderful job of convincing the masses that the key to success is to accumulate exclusively stocks and bonds. And this is true. But what they did not disclose to the masses is that such a strategy is key to the success of the central banks, Wall Street, and the power elite, not the masses themselves.

We hope that this brief article serves as a guide towards maximizing your personal liberty, resiliency, and self-sufficiency.

Always remember that happiness, fulfillment, and calmness of mind and spirit are the most precious of commodities and be mindful not to lose sight of these ideals on the road to building wealth and obtaining self-sufficiency. Also, never be afraid to follow your heart and stand on your principles; this life is but a journey in search of experience and wisdom, and that journey is best undertaken to the beat of one’s own drum.