Tag: finance

The Financial Regulatory System

excerpt from High Alert: How the Internet Reformation is causing a financial hurricane – and how to profit from it:financial regulatory agency

The elaborate financial regulatory structure surrounding the West’s securities and commodities markets are barriers to entry rather than guarantors of fair play. In the United States, anyway, they could hardly be anything else. Both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the now split-in-two NASD are monstrous morphs of unconstitutional creations. In the United States, anyone aspiring to own a broker-dealer is obliged to “join” the NASD — a government imposition that travels well beyond the borders of restraint-of-trade. And that’s just the beginning. FBI background checks, NASD tests, inspections, expenses, taxes, fees and sundry considerations — all must be confronted before the harassed businessperson brokers or “deals” a single stock.

Both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the NASD regulatory commission have so many rules and regulations on their books that either group can fine or suspend a business into oblivion should they choose to do so. This is an enormous power, but it is aimed at the “little guy” —the supplicant attempting to do business in the world’s most populous and boisterous securities arena. It is increasingly difficult. Worse still, as the US regulatory structure is exported around the world, other markets become more difficult to do business in. Only the world’s largest firms will have the resources and power to “capture” the regulators, hire the lawyers and generally provide a level of legal responsiveness that the 21st
century’s financial environment will demand.

How to Get Paid Up Front to Buy Stocks

submitted by jwithrow.stocks

Want to get paid up front to buy stocks you want to own at a price you specify? Selling put option contracts allows you to do just that.

Put options are a contractual agreement between two parties. The owner of the put option contract has the right to sell the designated stock to the counter-party at the agreed upon strike price at any time prior to the specified expiration date. In exchange for this right the owner of the put option must pay a market-based premium to the seller up front. Each contract is for 100 shares of the underlying stock.

For the owner, put options can serve two purposes – either as a downside hedge or as speculation. Generally speaking, the owner of the put option profits from the deal if the stock declines below the strike price.

In order to get paid up front to buy the stocks you want you simply need to “be the store” for hedgers and speculators and sell puts on stocks you would like to own. You choose the stock, the strike price, and the expiration date and you receive the premium immediately upon execution. That premium is yours to keep no matter what happens. If the stock is still above the strike price on expiration day then you walk away from the trade with pure profit. If the stock is below the strike price and the put option is exercised then you are obligated to buy 100 shares of the stock per option contract sold and the premium you were paid up front serves to reduce your cost basis in that position.

There are two basic strategies for selling put options. The first is to sell in-the-money puts on stocks you absolutely want to buy. This strategy can enable you to buy the stock at a lower price than it is trading for at the time.

Let’s use AUY as an example of this strategy (not a recommendation). AUY is currently trading at $4.48 per share. Instead of purchasing AUY at $4.48/share you could sell the February 20 5.5 Put for approximately $1.30 per share. This would obligate you to purchase 100 shares per put contract of AUY at $5.50 per share on or before February 20 and you would be paid $130 per contract up front to do so.

Now there are only two possible results. If AUY is trading above $5.50/share on February 20 then the put option expires worthless and you walk away with $130 per contract sold and you can explore selling more put options on AUY if you want. If AUY is still trading below $5.50/share on February 20 then you will be “put” the stock and you must purchase 100 shares per contract at $5.50/share. But you were already paid $1.30 per share so you would effectively be buying AUY at $4.20 per share ($5.50-1.30). Recall AUY was trading at $4.48 when you sold the put so you are buying the stock at a lower price than you could have originally.

The second strategy is to sell out-of-the-money puts on blue-chip stocks that you don’t think will dip below the strike price but you wouldn’t mind owning if they did. This is primarily a low-risk strategy for generating income and the lower premiums reflect this.

Let’s use WMT as an example of this strategy (not a recommendation). WMT is currently trading at $89.68 per share. We could sell the WMT March 20 82.5 Put for approximately $0.70 per share. In this example WMT would have to decline by roughly 8% in a little over two months for the put contract to be exercised. We walk away with $70 per contract unless that sharp decline happens.

As you can see, selling put options involves limited risk. You must keep enough cash in your brokerage account to purchase the underlying stock should the option be exercised but that is the most you can lose in each trade. If done properly, selling put options is actually less risky than buying stocks outright.

As always, be mindful of your asset allocation model before venturing into the equity markets.

Debt as Far as the Eye Can See

submitted by jwithrow.debt

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
Debt as Far as the Eye Can See

December 9, 2014
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P opened at $2,056 today. Gold is up around $1,218. Oil is still floating around $64 per barrel. Bitcoin is down to $347 per BTC, and the 10-year Treasury rate is 2.21% today.

In other news, U.S. national debt has now eclipsed $18 trillion. That’s: $18,000,000,000,000.00. Debt to GDP is now around 99%. To put this in perspective, U.S. national debt stood at $398 billion back in 1971 – 34% of GDP – when Tricky Dick put the “Out to Lunch” sign up in front of the international gold window.

Even more startling, total credit market debt now checks in at 330% of GDP. Mr. Market has been trying to wind down the credit market bubble for some time now, but the Federal Reserve has been fighting tooth and nail against him. The Fed’s weapon of choice: funny money! The Fed has purchased more than $4.3 trillion worth of bonds since 2008 in an effort to prop up asset prices and strangle interest rates.

Where did the Fed get this $4.3 trillion? As we pointed out in last week’s journal entry, the Fed got this $4.3 trillion from the same place it always gets money… it conjured every dime of it from thin air!

Still, the economists pretend like this is all normal. Some of them say that the Fed should have bought fewer bonds; $4.3 trillion worth was too much. Other economists say the Fed didn’t buy enough! So they write their articles and conduct their interviews and everyone sleeps sound at night. I can’t help but wonder – do they think this can go on forever? Do they think the Fed can reverse course whenever they darn well please? Do they think at all?

I don’t know if mainstream U.S. finance really is arrogant enough to think there are no consequences to all of this financial chicanery or if they are just playing a big sleight-of-hand game, but the world seems to slowly be waking up to the fiat monetary system that has allowed debt to pile up faster than 5:00 Beltway traffic.

Though the Swiss Gold Referendum didn’t pass last month, it does suggest a change in the financial wind. The initiative would have prevented the Swiss National Bank from selling any of Switzerland’s gold reserves and it would have required a 20% gold backing to the Swiss Franc. The fact that this initiative made it to a vote indicates a growing apprehensiveness towards the international monetary system.

This apprehensiveness is not limited to Switzerland. Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands have each expressed interest in repatriating their gold reserves held in foreign central banks. Additionally, both China and Russia have been buying gold hand over fist. The Russian Central Bank bought nearly 20 tons of gold in October alone. We don’t know exactly how much gold China has been buying – they haven’t reported their full reserve numbers in several years. China and Russia aren’t alone; global gold demand now eats up more supply than miners can produce at current prices.

2013 was a record setting year for precious metals purchases from the U.S. Mint and 2014 sales are on pace to surpass that record. The U.S. Mint sold 3,426,000 ounces of silver in November alone. Perth Mint sold 851,836 ounces of silver in November. India imported 169 million ounces of silver through the first ten months of 2014. The precious metals are clearly being viewed as a life-boat in a sea of rising debt.

In addition to the precious metal rush, several major U.S. financial firms have been using depressed interest rates to gobble up real assets recently as well. The Blackstone Group has been buying domestic real estate like it was last call and Berkshire Hathaway acquired Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp (BNSF) – a railroad company. Shrewd analysts suggest Berkshire’s purchase of BNSF was a hard asset play to mitigate expected inflation; railroads are nothing but hard assets hauling other hard assets around the country.

Are all of the precious metal purchases and hard asset acquisitions just a coincidence?

Maybe deficits really aren’t that big of a deal. Maybe the Fed really can navigate through the uncharted waters of debt and derivatives. Maybe the fiat monetary system really has supplanted Mr. Market’s choice for good. Maybe financial asset prices really can go to the moon and never come back down.

But I wouldn’t bet on it.

More to come,
Signature

 

 

 

 

 

Joe Withrow
Wayward Philosopher

For more of Joe’s thoughts on the “Great Reset” please read “The Individual is Rising” which is available at http://www.theindividualisrising.com/. The book is also available on Amazon in both paperback and Kindle editions.

Image Source: WilliamBanzai7 – Zero Hedge

Asset Allocation

submitted by jwithrow.asset-allocation

Asset allocation is a necessary tool for saving money and building capital within a fiat monetary system. Within a fiat system, the purchasing power of your currency is gradually inflated away and the value of various asset classes can fluctuate rapidly based on central bank monetary policy. Thus, it is important to have a principled yet flexible asset allocation model in place.

The concept of asset allocation is to allot a percentage of your capital to various asset classes and to maintain each allocation ratio until you deem it necessary to adjust your model. For example, a basic asset allocation model could consist of 25% cash, 25% precious metals, 25% real estate, and 25% stocks. You would then allocate your income to each asset class accordingly.

The beauty of this strategy is that you cannot be wiped out by any wild swings in the market and you will always have cash on hand with which to purchase assets when they go on sale (when the market tanks). Of course you can always add additional asset classes into your model such as bonds or bitcoin or cattle depending upon your outlook and you may need to adjust your percentages based on new analysis from time to time as well.

The Infinite Banking insurance strategy that we talk so much about here at Zenconomics and in our book works perfectly to house much of your cash allocation. An IBC policy serves to compound returns on your cash while it sits idle waiting to be put to use without sacrificing any liquidity whatsoever.

As for your precious metals allocation, you can purchase gold and silver bullion from any local coin shop or from reputable dealers online or you can purchase through companies like Hard Assets Alliance which will facilitate fully allocated domestic or international storage for you.

Of course to follow an asset allocation model you will need to save a large percentage of your income. I think 50% is a good benchmark. 75% savings is preferred. Very few people have the discipline to pull this off but those who do never have to worry about financial problems again.

If maintaining such an asset allocation model for your household sounds extremely tedious and time-consuming that’s because it is. This is the price we must pay for living under a fiat monetary regime. In a sound monetary system we would be able to build capital simply by saving money in a bank account because our money would maintain its purchasing power over time. Instead, saving money in a bank account is a losing strategy so we are all forced to become financial analysts or have our wealth systematically transferred away from us.

Saving

submitted by jwithrow.Fishing Boat

We have been hearing all about how most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and not saving any money as justification for the brilliant (*cough*) myRA government savings plans so we felt that it would be prudent to take a deeper look at what ‘saving’ is.

You see, we don’t think that saving is about money. Money is involved, but it is not the focus. Saving is really about storing our productive efforts.

It goes back to the days of barter…

Back then the fisherman would catch extra fish in the morning and take them to the market in the afternoon to trade his extra fish with the farmer for vegetables. His wife liked to have vegetables with her fish for supper so he had to trade for vegetables instead of the painted rock that he really liked.

The fisherman had learned that fish would start to smell bad the day after being caught so he had no choice but to trade all of his extra fish every afternoon and go fishing for more again every morning.

Until the fisherman discovered gold. Then the fisherman could trade his extra fish for gold and take the next day off. The fisherman didn’t really care about amassing gold; he just figured out that gold would let him store his production so he didn’t have to go fishing every single day to feed his family. And it turned out that three day old gold smelled much better than three day old fish – this was a bonus.

So saving was born!

Somewhere along the line we forgot this and started to think that saving was about amassing money. And on top of that we started to think that money was paper and not gold. We are so forgetful!

So when saving became about money and not about production we opened the door to debt. We started to think that instead of saving we could just borrow whatever money we needed. After all, the credit money still bought stuff just like the saved money except we didn’t have to wait to use it!

But then when we had to start using our entire paycheck to pay back all of the credit money we found out that we had to be even more productive now than before we went into debt. Our plan backfired.

We didn’t learn from our smart fisherman ancestor and now we had to go fishing both in the morning and in the afternoon to have enough fish for our supper and also enough to trade for vegetables so our wife won’t get mad and also enough to give to the banker to pay him back for the credit money that bought us the really neat painted rock.

Darn painted rocks.

The Middle-Class is Fading

submitted by jwithrow.Fire Dollar

The middle-class is fading. Fast.

The jobs that have been lost since the financial system teetered on implosion in 2008 have not come back. Those jobs are not coming back. More education won’t bring them back. More laws won’t bring them back.

The government’s job report says that more and more jobs are being created, but guess what? They are mostly low paid part-time or temporary jobs; they are not the middle management jobs in the high rise buildings.

As for why the middle-class is being wiped out, it’s no mystery. This very same scenario has occurred all throughout history. One can look back as far as the time of the Roman Empire and see that there is nothing new under the sun. History rhymes and those ignorant of history are doomed to repeat its mistakes.

You see, every time the currency of the land has been inflated and debased, the middle-class has been destroyed. Inflation transfers value from those who must work to earn currency to those who control the currency supply.

They don’t tell you this in school. They don’t tell you this in college. They don’t even tell you this if you major in finance or economics. They probably don’t know themselves. So most people never understand what is happening. Their paycheck gets bigger and bigger so they can’t figure out why they can never get ahead. They don’t realize that their bigger paycheck is buying less and less. They don’t understand the difference between nominal income and real income.

In Roman times it was the government that controlled the currency supply. The Romans would collect taxes and tributes from citizens and conquered peoples and they would then melt the precious metal coins and add in cheaper metals such as copper to re-mint more coins of lower value. They would then pay the Roman army with these cheaper coins and pretend that they had the same value as before. The general market caught on to this process and began to charge higher prices for food and goods in response. The middle-class was destroyed over time and eventually the economy collapsed. Then the Empire fell.

In modern times it is the Federal Reserve and the other central banks of the world that control the currency supply. They do this by simply creating currency units from nothing and using the new currency as they see fit. They inject some of this new currency into the banking system, they use some of the new currency to buy government debt, and they inject some of the new currency into the IMF and foreign central banks. This directly leads to more and more debt and an increase in consumer prices across the board.

They are printing currency at will so why is the middle-class working so hard for 2% annual raises?

The rules of the game have changed and those unable to recognize this and adjust accordingly will be wiped out with the middle-class – just as has happened throughout history.

What We Forgot About Free Market Capitalism Part 1

submitted by jwithrow.Rothbard Capitalism

One of the most important elements of free market capitalism is the price system. The capitalist price system provides information on supply and demand in the marketplace and individuals make business and investment decisions based on this information.

The economic system that America now employs is not free market capitalism and there are legions of regulations in place that distort the market pricing system every step of the way.

The most insidious price distortion is the suppression of interest rates.

Interest rates are simply the price of money. Like everything else in the market economy, interest rates are self-regulated by the forces of supply and demand. If there is a high quantity of capital in the system available for lending then interest rates will naturally be low. Low interest rates will entice borrowers to engage in long term financing – purchasing homes, expanding businesses, etc. Interest rates will then naturally rise as the capital available for lending diminishes. High interest rates are not attractive to borrowers so individuals and businesses will focus more on short term projects. This will lead to increased capital formation within the system which will gradually trigger falling interest rates.

But what happens when a central bank suppresses interest rates and keeps them near zero for an extended period of time? Well, this destroys the entire pricing system and distorts the entire market system.

Artificially suppressed interest rates send a false signal – which is exactly why they were suppressed in the first place. Artificially suppressed rates still entice borrowers to take engage in long term financing but this is a Keynesian trap. The problem is that there is not sufficient capital formation in the economy to warrant the low interest rates and thus there is not a true demand for all of the long term projects undertaken.

This is called mal-investment.

“If you build it, they will come” is a great catch phrase in the movies but it’s just not how the real world works.

Despite what the economics textbook says, there is no such thing as a ‘mixed economic system’. There is simply no room for the suppression of interest rates or the distortion of prices in a capitalist system.

There are only two choices:

  1. Free markets
  2. Central planning

Free market capitalism presumes an honest and functional price system that is not manipulated by a central bank.

Oh, we should probably mention how interest rates are suppressed.

The Federal Reserve creates currency units out of thin air and uses them to buy long term Treasury bonds at low rates. What could possibly go wrong?

By the way, you can read more on this topic here, here, and here.