diversified portfolio Archives

Individual Solutions: Building Financial Resiliency

submitted by jwithrow.

Journal of a Wayward Philosopher
Individual Solutions: Building Financial Resiliency

February 12, 2015
Hot Springs, VA

The S&P opened at $2,071 today. Gold is down to $1,226 per ounce. Oil is floating around $49 per barrel. Bitcoin is hanging around $221 per BTC, and the 10-year Treasury rate opened at 2.03% today.

Ten central banks have cut interest rates so far in 2015. The list includes: Australia, Canada, China, Denmark, India, Egypt, Pakistan, Peru, Russia, and Turkey. Additionally, both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are actively buying sovereign debt… with counterfeited currency created from thin air. The Federal Reserve is taking a break from this exercise after nearly six years of creating currency to shop at the U.S. Treasury and go yard-saling on Wall Street. Of course the $4.5 trillion worth of sovereign debt and mortgage-backed securities still sits on the Fed’s balance sheet in the interim.

All of this economic intervention is a concerted effort to stave off a major credit contraction. The central bankers talk about hitting certain GDP and unemployment rate metrics but that is all part of their dog and pony show. If creating currency out of thin air could actually grow an economy and create jobs then we would already live in a utopian paradise. But that’s just not how the world works.

Try as they may to avoid it, the coming credit contraction is inevitable. You see, the global monetary system has been fraudulent for a little more than four decades now. Gold officially anchored the global monetary system for two centuries prior to 1971. Then, in 1971, President Nixon’s administration acted to break away from two hundred years of tradition and the U.S. ended direct convertibility of the dollar to gold. Of course the “Great Society” welfare programs and the Vietnam War had a lot to do with this decision.

“Your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today,” Nixon proclaimed on television with a straight face. “The effect of this action, in other words, will be to stabilize the dollar.”

Of course the exact opposite happened: the U.S. dollar fell off a cliff. Anyone living during the 70’s can attest to this. What was the price of a new home back then? A new car? A hamburger? The difference between what those items cost in 1971 and what they cost today represents how far the U.S. dollar has fallen in purchasing power.

How did this happen?

Well, with all ties to gold removed governments and central banks discovered they could conjure currency into existence to pay for anything they wanted. Tanks, fighter jets, food stamps, Medicare part D, $800 trash cans… no problem! So they embarked upon this historic credit expansion armed with a magical monetary system that provided them with money for nothing.

But governments weren’t the only beneficiaries. The companies making the tanks and the bombs made out like bandits. So did all of the bureaucrats who were hired as government expanded. And the people receiving welfare benefits found the system quite palatable as well. Pretty soon smart people learned that the best business in the world was to sell something to the U.S. government because it had unlimited money to spend. So they descended upon K Street like buzzards on road-kill and pretty soon the suburbs surrounding D.C. claimed home to six of the wealthiest ten counties in the U.S.

The champagne has been flowing up on the Hill and in the lobbyist offices on K Street for four decades now thanks mostly to the fraudulent fiat monetary system in place since 1971. The establishment hails their elastic currency system as a major success but theirs is a self-serving and short term view. Credit has been constantly expanding since 1971 but do we really think this can go on forever? Can we continue to run up debt, print money to pay interest on that debt, and then buy all of the fighter jets, disability checks, politicians, and cheap junk from China without ever having to think twice about it? If not, what happens when the credit contracts and we can no longer afford all of these expenditures?

The Austrian School of Economics tells us what the result of this madness will be: a “crack-up boom” followed by a monstrous bust as all of the bad debt and malinvestments are finally liquidated.

The crack-up boom occurs as the prices of assets and real goods are driven up to the moon by enormous amounts of excess currency conjured into existence in an attempt to perpetuate the credit expansion. After all, that new currency has to go somewhere. This scheme will work to stave off the credit contraction… until it doesn’t. Then cometh the bust.

While Austrian Economics can make the diagnosis, the timing of the bust cannot be predicted. There are too many interconnected factors at play. What’s important is that there is still time to build financial resiliency in advance. The cornerstone of financial resiliency is knowledge and understanding. Understand fiat money is an illusion. Understand the difference between money and wealth. Study Austrian Economics to get a feel for what’s really going on in the economy.

Once you understand how the monetary system actually works you can formulate a customized asset allocation model based upon your personal circumstances.

A resilient asset allocation model will consist of cash (20-30%), precious metals (10-30%), real estate (30-60%), and strategic equities (10-15%).

At minimum you should carry enough cash to cover at least 6-12 months of expenses. Distressed assets will go on sale when then bust hits so any cash in excess of your reserve fund can be used to acquire these distressed assets (real estate, stocks, businesses, etc.) when they are cheap.

Your precious metals allocation should consist of physical gold and silver bullion stored at home or in a legal segregated account overseas. Never store precious metals in a domestic bank vault – Americans learned this the hard way back in the 30’s when the banks closed and FDR raided the vaults to confiscate gold. Remember, precious metals are insurance not speculation. The price of gold (and silver) will skyrocket in terms of fiat currency, but its purchasing power will remain relatively constant just as it has for thousands of years. Those who save in fiat currency will see their wealth evaporate as the credit contraction unfolds while those who hold precious metals will weather the storm. J.P Morgan testified before Congress in 1912: “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” Don’t be fooled.

Real estate presents a unique opportunity currently as we are living during a period of historically low interest rates and lenders are willing to offer long term mortgages at these low rates. This provides a tremendous opportunity to lock in these low rates on real estate for thirty years during which time interest rates will inevitably rise significantly.

We firmly believe stocks should make up the smallest percentage of a resilient portfolio under current economic conditions. Stockholders have been the primary beneficiaries of the massive credit expansion and all of the easy-money chicanery over the past several years. Financial institutions have poured new money into the equities markets and publicly-traded companies have used a ton of excess cash to buy back shares of their own stock. As a result current stock valuations do not reflect the underlying health of the economy. Though stocks will run for a bit longer, we are closer to the end than the beginning of the bull cycle. We think the exception is in the resource and commodity sector, however. The stocks of well-managed companies in this sector could do extremely well over the next few years as the global financial system continues to falter.

Nobody can control macroeconomic conditions but we can each control our individual response to them. Building financial resiliency by constructing a diversified portfolio across several asset classes is an individual solution to a collective problem. Financial resiliency is just half of the picture, however. Tomorrow we will look at what we call home resiliency.

Until the morrow,

Joe Withrow

Wayward Philosopher

For more of Joe’s thoughts on the “Great Reset” and the paradigm shift underway please read “The Individual is Rising” which is available at http://www.theindividualisrising.com/. The book is also available on Amazon in both paperback and Kindle editions.

The Case for Gold and Silver Bullion

submitted by jwithrow.

While gold and silver prices have declined in 2013, the fundamental case for owning gold and silver bullion is still growing.

The mainstream media has been quick to pronounce the death of the precious metals as an asset class with their evidence being the recent price depreciation of both gold and silver. Theirs is a very short term and self-serving view; the long term fundamentals have not changed.

The Federal Reserve did taper its money printing, but guess what? The creature from Jekyll Island is still creating $75 billion new dollars every single month to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities. Meanwhile, Congress has quietly done away with the sequester spending ‘cuts’ and will continue to spend gargantuan amounts of money in 2014 – money they do not have.

What’s so humorous about this is the fact that the sequester did not cut any real spending in the first place – it simply curtailed proposed future spending increases. We suppose the thought of curtailed spending increases kept the Congress critters up too late at night.

And it’s not just the U.S.

Japan has promised to continue to keep their central bank money printer on turbo gear. Estimates suggest that the U.S. and Japan together will create nearly $2 trillion over the next 12 month period. Meanwhile, the Eurozone experiment is still on the verge of blowing up and not one single G-20 country operates with a balanced budget.

Simply put, the economies of the developed world have run up massive amounts of debt that cannot possibly be paid back in full. The massive debt has been serviced primarily by central bank funny money up to this point, but we are quite sure that the funny money policies cannot possibly last forever. And the longer the printing presses continue to run, the less valuable our paper currencies will be.

That’s why we adamantly believe that gold and silver bullion will be a vital part of a diversified portfolio in the coming years as the economic endgame of central bank funny money policy plays out.

Now, we don’t think it would be prudent to hold 100% of one’s assets in gold and silver. We look at the precious metals more as insurance against destructive monetary policies. Oh, and we should probably clarify that we mean physical gold and silver bullion in your possession, not an ETF.

So if you expect the value of your paper currency to increase then you may not be interested in holding gold or silver bullion. But if you expect the value of your paper currency to decrease then purchasing gold and silver bullion may be very wise. Given the long term fundamentals, we would suggest that the value of our paper currency is ultimately only going to go in one direction.

And that direction is back to paper currency’s inherent value…

Steps to Self-Sufficiency

submitted by jwithrow.

This list is certainly not comprehensive but it is our hope that it serves as food for thought.

1. Become money-conscious

Before you can begin to create self-sufficiency and build wealth, you must become money-conscious. Wealth does not come to those who are careless or lazy and it does not come overnight with a stroke of luck. You must begin to recognize that nearly everything that you do has an impact on your self-sufficiency and accumulation of wealth. You must begin to recognize the rules of the universe as it relates to money. And you must begin to take action immediately. Begin to track your expenses tirelessly and eliminate unnecessary spending where possible. This does not require you to become “cheap” but it does require frugality. Once you become money-conscious you will identify ways to reduce your expenses and you will free up additional income to use towards the attainment of self-sufficiency.

2. Consider contributing to a 401(k) if your employer matches your contribution

After assessing your income and expenses and getting your financial house in order, consider contributing to a 401(k) up to the employer match percentage each month. It is important to review the vesting requirements (time of employment required before you can cash out the matching contributions) and determine whether or not you will be at this company for that length of time before deciding to contribute to the plan. The employer match will serve to multiply your deferred savings and your 401(k) contribution will reduce your taxable income. We would not recommend contributing any more than the employer match rate as 401(k) plans are very limited and the rest of your income would better serve you elsewhere. Be aware of the fact that you will have to pay a 10% penalty to the IRS if you cash out the 401(k) prior to retirement but the tax shelter provided will serve to offset some of this penalty. With that said, we would suggest that a 401(k) plan is not a very strong part of a retirement plan and that the funds accumulated would probably better serve you as capital to be deployed once you have developed a more specific investment plan. The 401(k) will allow you to automatically put aside a very small amount of income for use once you are farther along on your road to financial freedom. This vehicle may not be suitable for everyone, but it may be useful if you are still working on creating a sound investment or business plan.

3. Develop a plan to eliminate all consumer debt

You must eliminate all consumer debt before you can effectively begin to build wealth and your first target should be credit card debt. The interest rate on your credit card, in all likelihood, will far outweigh any return on investment that you could consistently generate with your money. So develop a plan to pay all credit card debt off as soon as possible. The most effective way to do this is to determine exactly what dollar amount you can afford to pay towards your credit card debt with each paycheck, and to pay that amount immediately as soon as your paycheck is received. Do not leave yourself short on other bills but make sure that you are paying a sizeable chunk of debt down each month at the same time. If you have multiple credit cards then you should pay the card with the highest interest rate off first. Once all credit card debt is eliminated, move on to the next highest interest rate obligation that you have. The one exception to paying down the highest interest rate debt first is if you have a smaller obligation that could be paid off very quickly in order to free up additional cash flow that could then be directed towards the higher interest debt. While eliminating consumer debt may seem like a long and slow process, be patient and persistent. Imagine a world in which you have no consumer debt to pay and imagine how much extra money you will have at your disposal once you are free of consumer debt.

4. Develop a plan to eliminate or reduce mortgage debt

This step could possibly be interchanged with the next steps depending on your situation but the idea is to either eliminate or reduce your monthly mortgage debt significantly now that you have additional free cash flow from eliminating consumer debt. While the many possibilities cannot be described in this article due to the variety and complexity of mortgage types, we do discuss mortgages in more detail here. Broadly speaking, assess your mortgage and determine if an action can be taken to enhance your financial situation (reducing the LTV, refinancing, etc).

5. Build a six month cash reserve

If you have not already built a cash reserve then now is the time to do so (if you have dependents then you may want to consider making this step two). A cash reserve should be extremely liquid so that you have access to the money in a timely manner in case of emergency. A standard checking account would serve this purpose. Interest bearing savings or money market accounts are acceptable choices although you can rest assured that the interest paid on these accounts will be negligible. Cash under the pillow is another option. Gold or silver bullion could be a wise choice but you will probably want to have direct and immediate access to some cash. While six months is a good benchmark, you could consider building a one year cash reserve as well. Just make sure that you are prepared to sustain yourself and meet obligations in case of an emergency.

6. Set up an IBC whole life insurance policy

If you are unfamiliar with the IBC (Infinite Banking Concept) strategy then this step will require some research before you are comfortable with the idea. Now, do not be put off by seeing this recommendation for ‘life insurance’ – learning about an IBC policy will completely shatter your preconceived notions about what life insurance can do. The reason you have not heard about this type of policy before is because Wall Street would go out of business very quickly if the masses learned and implemented this financial strategy. An IBC policy is about building an ever-growing pool of capital in a way that is advantageous in both the tax and liability realms. The IBC strategy is not about death benefits and it is not about rates of return – these are just bonuses.

When structured properly, IBC policies allow you to funnel income into the policy rather than a bank account. Unlike your bank account, your life insurance cash value is secure from creditors, bail-ins, and bank runs. The cash value also generates a small rate of return without sacrificing liquidity – you can access your cash value tax free at any time for any reason. The implementation of this strategy does require a long-term commitment because it will take on average 8-10 years before an IBC policy ‘breaks even’ internally (cash value equals premium outlay).

Please feel free to email us if you would like more information on this concept.

7. Build diversified income streams in fields that interest you

At this point you have done your due diligence and are in a financial position that will allow you to work on pursuing income in ways that are enjoyable to you. If you are already engaged in work that is satisfying and meaningful to you then this step may not be relevant to you. But if you are like most of us who simply tolerate or maybe despise our job then now is the time to make changes. And even if you are content in your current profession it may be wise to build side businesses as economic conditions are tentative at best at this juncture in time.

Start by deciding what it is that you would like to do with your time and then develop a plan to generate income from your chosen field. While this is an embarrassingly simplistic statement, it is entirely possible to generate income from any good or service for which there is a market. Build a big business. Build several small businesses. Buy rental properties. Become a freelancer in your areas of expertise. Whatever your plan is, the important thing is to engage in work that is enjoyable and meaningful to you – income is useless if it comes with the sacrifice of happiness.

8. Convert income into real assets

Once you have developed a source or sources of stable income then it is time to convert this income into real assets. The most widely accepted choices would be gold and silver bullion, real estate, and/or farm land but you are not limited to these. Real assets could also be things that increase your household’s self sustainability such as alternative energy sources or a family garden. You could also choose more speculative items such as art work or a wine collection but these assets would be much less liquid and thus much more risky (well, the wine would be liquid but in a different kind of way). If you venture into the realm of these speculative investments then make sure that you have a portfolio consisting of the more widely accepted assets as well.

Conclusion:

Note that we wittingly omitted any mention of investing in paper equities (stocks, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, bonds). The first reason for this is that the financial services industry has sold this type of investment as the only one suitable for retirement which is a lie. There may be a place for this type of investment within your portfolio but it will require much diligence and should serve only as one asset class amongst several within your portfolio. Holding a mixture of stocks across different industries is said by the experts to be the key to diversifying your portfolio. We would suggest that holding a mixture of stocks, real estate, gold and silver bullion, etc. would be the key to a diversified portfolio and that holding only paper equities would be terribly risky. So if you do choose to include equity investments in your portfolio please make sure that you do your research and that you also diversify amongst other, more tangible asset classes as well.

Think of real assets as a ‘backing’ to the cash value of your IBC whole life insurance policy that we discussed in step 6. By building a significant pool of capital (IBC policy) and solidifying it with real assets you are doing exactly what the elite central banks do – except without resorting to fraud. The central banks, Wall Street, and the power elite in general have done a wonderful job of convincing the masses that the key to success is to accumulate exclusively stocks and bonds. And this is true. But what they did not disclose to the masses is that such a strategy is key to the success of the central banks, Wall Street, and the power elite, not the masses themselves.

We hope that this brief article serves as a guide towards maximizing your personal liberty, resiliency, and self-sufficiency.

Always remember that happiness, fulfillment, and calmness of mind and spirit are the most precious of commodities and be mindful not to lose sight of these ideals on the road to building wealth and obtaining self-sufficiency. Also, never be afraid to follow your heart and stand on your principles; this life is but a journey in search of experience and wisdom, and that journey is best undertaken to the beat of one’s own drum.