submitted by jwithrow.
Debt is nothing more than an obligation to pay for present spending with future earnings.
A little bit of debt used to increase future earnings is a good thing. A little bit of debt used to increase present spending at the expense of future earnings is not a very good thing. A lot of debt used to increase present spending at the expense of future earnings is a good way to make it very difficult for there to be any earnings in the future at all.
At the macroeconomic level, the U.S. has chosen option three. Japan and Europe have done the same.
The great thing about economics is that there is a ‘response’ system built in that maintains a sort of chaotic order in the general market.
When there is significant capital formation within the system, interest rates go down. Decreasing interest rates send a signal that it is a good time to borrow so homes are purchased and businesses expand.
Interest rates then rise as more debt is taken on and thus capital available diminishes. This sends a signal that it is not a good time to borrow so mortgages are paid down and business debt is reduced. This leads to gradual capital formation within the system that will trigger a decrease in interest rates and the cycle perpetuates.
But guess what happens when you have an Ivy League graduate that thinks it is his job to force interest rates lower and keep them suppressed?
That’s right! The market does not receive the proper signal and it looks like it is still a good time to borrow. So even more homes are purchased and businesses keep on expanding.
Then we get the idea that home prices should always go up, stock prices should always go up, businesses should always expand, and GDP should always grow.
And we end up with more debt.
U.S. debt has grown by more than 60% since the financial crisis began in 2008. Global debt has grown by more than 40% in the same time period.
It turns out that a problem of too much debt cannot be solved by taking on more debt.
The events of 2008 sent a signal that it was time to stop borrowing and to liquidate debt but we didn’t listen. The economy will undoubtedly blow up again and the next crisis will be even bigger because the debt is now even bigger.
The only way for the economy to truly recover is for a mass-liquidation of debt to occur. Until then we can expect the Fed to keep fudging the numbers and blaming economic stagnancy on the snow.
We happen to like snow and find it to be much more desirable than the Fed, both economically and ascetically.