Zenconomics

The Great Reorganization – Part 8

Welcome to Part 8 of this running thread on America’s Great Reorganization. And thank you for sticking with me through it all.

Yesterday we talked about the collectivist approach to investing. That’s the “conventional” retirement planning model.

Retirement Inc. has pushed the collectivist approach for forty years now. It says we should all funnel our savings into various kinds of funds (mutual funds/index funds/exchange-traded funds) and then hold them inside of retirement accounts – 401(k)s and IRAs.

As we discussed, this model created distortions within our society… because it enabled a quasi-political agenda. Worse, the conventional approach strapped humanity to the hamster wheel. Here’s what I mean…

There are a plethora of rules that come attached to retirement accounts. Those rules work together to effectively put our money in jail. Once we lock our savings away in these accounts, we can’t touch it again until we retire without incurring heavy-handed penalties.

Of course, Retirement Inc. pitches its funds as “diversified” – because they own stocks in a wide range of industries. They say their diversification equals safety.

But notice how they only focus on one asset class. And it just happens to be the asset class that pays them fees year after year. Even when they recommend bonds – usually it’s through some bond fund trading in the stock market.

So Retirement Inc. wants us to give them total control over our money. We are to lock it away and trust them with our investments… and hope they “go up”.

I see this approach as incredibly fragile. The self-directed investor can do much better.

The Great Reorganization – Part 7

Over the past week I’ve submitted to you my running macroeconomic thesis: America’s Great Reorganization…

They say that there are only two guarantees in life – death and taxes. I don’t care much for that statement though. So I’d like to propose a modification.

I think there’s only one guarantee in life… Change. That’s it.

Everything changes over time. We know this to be true by experience.

One day we look in the mirror and see a young, vibrant face. But we don’t think too much about it. We have too many places to go and people to see. Our energy is boundless. We just assume it will always be this way.

Then some years go by and we don’t see that same face in the mirror anymore. Somehow it’s not quite so vibrant. And now it has some lines on it. We might sit and ponder this for a little while… because we don’t have other plans. We lack the energy to do all the things we once did.

Well, it’s the same with the economy and thus our society. Change is guaranteed.

As it stands, the cheap money era that reshaped our society over the past five decades is coming to an end. That which was sustained by printed money and artificially low interest rates will come to an end with it.

We’ve spent the past week discussing what this means at the macro level. Now let’s talk about what it means for us personally.

The Great Reorganization – Part 6

Time waits for no man.

We find some variation of this proverb in literature scattered across the centuries. The earliest variation is attributed to St. Marher in 1225. “And te tide and te time þat tu iboren were, schal beon iblescet“, he wrote.

And it’s unquestioningly true.

We celebrated my daughter’s tenth birthday over the weekend. Here she is crafting decorations for her party:

Two of her friends came over to celebrate with her. Madison called it a “sleepover’. But I think that’s a misnomer. I’m not sure those girls did much sleeping. I think they sat up talking about 10-year old girl stuff into the wee hours of the night.

To her, that’s just what you do when you turn 10 years old. But to her father… it’s not so normal.

Because I remember when this young lady first arrived. Indeed, I delivered her myself in the room adjacent to where she is sitting in the image above.

Alas, time waits for no man.

But like a DEI-approved hire, I suppose time doesn’t discriminate. In just the same way, it waits for no economic era. And that brings us back to our running thesis: America’s Great Reorganization…

The Great Reorganization – Part 5

We’ve talked all week about what I’m calling the Great Reorganization.

To bring new readers up to speed, the thesis is rather simple. Virtually every aspect of our economy has been “financialized” over the past 50 years. This caused some major distortions that threaten to sink the entire dollar-based financial system.

As we discussed yesterday, the mass financialization of our economy was itself a fundamental reorganization of American society. Painting with a broad brush, we went from being focused on quality of life to being obsessed with maximization.

That is to say, the rat race became our reality… and family-owned shops on quaint Main Streets became our past. The case of Downer’s Hardware we talked about yesterday is a microcosm of that massive trend.

However, a major sea-change at the heart of the global financial system signals that we’re in a new era now. We’re at the cusp of another major reorganization of American society. It will resemble some of the better features of our past… as well as new aspects we can’t possibly envision yet thanks to technological innovations.

The vision for this Great Reorganization began to take shape in my mind when SOFR replaced LIBOR as the interest rate benchmark for dollar-denominated loans. The seeds have been sown for several years now. But something caught my attention last week that seemingly confirms it for me.

On October 12^th, the Wall Street Journal ran an article titled: America’s New Millionaire Class: Plumbers and HVAC Entrepreneurs. The article went on to detail how private equity (PE) firms are now rushing to buy skilled trade businesses.

The PE guys plan to “rollup” the skilled trade industry by purchasing locally-owned plumbing and HVAC businesses that can be integrated into a larger company. That way the revenue and profits from a range of small businesses accrue to the larger company… to make it look good.

The Great Reorganization – Part 4

Autumn is upon us up here in the mountains of Virginia. The air has cooled… the humidity has evaporated… and the leaves are beginning to make their annual descent back to the Earth.

There’s something magical about this time of year. It’s a reminder that everything is finite. As the book of Ecclesiastes says: There is a time for everything… and a season for every activity under the heavens.

The gravel road pictured above is our driveway. There’s one way in and one way out… like we’re at the end of the world up here. Most days I feel like we are.

We bought this property from the family who owned the old Downer’s Hardware store in the nearby town. They opened the store in 1953 and ran it for just over 50 years.

We were a couple decades into the “cheap money” experiment when Downer’s Hardware closed its doors in 2004… but we hadn’t yet reached the apex.

We talked yesterday about the result of this experiment – cheap money cheapens everything. The case of Downer’s Hardware illustrates this dynamic…

The Great Reorganization – Part 3

We’re talking about America’s Great Reorganization this week.

For those just joining us – the thesis is rather simple. Virtually every aspect of our economy has been “financialized” over the past 50 years. This caused some major distortions that threaten to sink the entire dollar-based financial system.

Most of the mainstream financial analysis I’ve seen largely ignores this dynamic. It takes the position that nothing has broken yet… therefore nothing big is likely to break going forward.

At the same time, much of the alternative financial commentary out there seems to employ single-variable analysis. It looks at the increase of fiscal debt and deficits and presumes that they will continue apace until the system collapses under its own weight.

But what if that variable isn’t fixed? What if it changes?

As we discussed yesterday, the US Congress has shown no desire to cut spending and get its fiscal house in order. But a major sea-change at the heart of the dollar-based financial system could force the issue.

That sea-change stems from the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) replacing the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) as the interest rate benchmark for dollar-denominated loans and derivatives.

SOFR allowed the Federal Reserve (the Fed) to break ranks with the global central bank cartel. It’s what enabled Fed Chair Jerome Powell to raise interest rates at the most aggressive pace in history.

The financial media covered that story daily. They said it was all about combatting inflation. But that was just part of the story – a small part.

The Great Reorganization – Part 2

Yesterday we made a bold claim. The second American revolution is currently underway.

Except this revolution isn’t being fought on the battlefield. It’s financial in nature.

It all centers around something called the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). SOFR (pronounced “so-fur”) is now the benchmark interest rate for dollar-denominated loans and derivatives. It was created in 2018. And it replaced the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) in January 2022.

This is an esoteric corner of the global financial system… but it’s critical to understanding what’s playing out today. Especially on the geopolitical and macroeconomic level.

Simply put, SOFR connects the dots.

When LIBOR was the benchmark rate for dollar-denominated loans, the US economy was tied to the agenda established by the power factions controlling the European Union (EU). That’s because 11 panel banks in Europe could manipulate interest rates through LIBOR, as we discussed yesterday.

With SOFR now in place, those European banks have no influence on dollar-denominated interest rates. SOFR liberated US monetary policy… and paved the way for what I’m calling the Great Reorganization.

The Great Reorganization – Part 1

We spent the past two weeks talking about what a normal economy looks like… and how it’s all been distorted over the last 50 years or so. Even the US Treasury market – the bedrock underpinning the global financial system – is starting to crack.

As we’ve discussed, the current financial trajectory is not sustainable. But that doesn’t mean the American financial system is doomed.

If you’ll permit me, I’d like to venture into an esoteric corner of the global financial system today… and maybe even peak behind some curtains. What I’ll share with you is my analysis – the conclusions I’ve come to after many hours of careful consideration.

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) began publishing something called the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in April 2018 – two months after Jerome Powell became Fed Chairman. We didn’t realize it then, but the second American revolution was underway.

SOFR (pronounced “so-fur”) is a benchmark interest rate for dollar-denominated loans and derivatives. It’s based exclusively on transactions in the US Treasury repurchase (repo) market—which the Fed is directly involved in.

SOFR gradually grew in importance in the years after its creation. Then it replaced the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) as the interest rate benchmark for dollar-denominated loans and derivatives in January 2022.

Again, we didn’t realize just how significant this move was at the time. But in hindsight, SOFR replacing LIBOR liberated US monetary policy from international influences. Here’s how…

The bedrock is cracking…

We’ve been talking the past week and a half about the economy, interest rates, and normalization.

Today, let’s delve into the cornerstone of global finance—US Treasuries. Treasuries have been the bedrock of the global financial system in a sense… but the foundation is now cracking.

US Treasuries are government debt securities issued by the United States Treasury Department. They’re considered risk-free assets. And they underpin much of the global financial system. Here’s how they work:

Domestic Role: Treasuries finance the US government’s operations. They’re sold to investors who then receive periodic interest payments at the specified yield for the full duration of the security. Insurance companies, banks, investment funds, and private corporations buy Treasuries to earn a rate of return on their cash reserves.

Global Role: Treasuries have been the world’s reserve currency since the end of World War II. Countries and central banks use them to store value in dollars, settle international transactions, and to manage their own currencies. This allows the US government to borrow money at lower rates and issue financial sanctions with global impact.

Both domestic and foreign institutions have used US Treasuries as a primary reserve asset for over 50 years now. But as we discussed yesterday, every aspect of the economy has been distorted in that time… and the US Treasury market is no different.

How the normal became abnormal

Yesterday we discussed how a normal economy operates. We can summarize it as follows:

Market-based system & sound money –> savings –> investment –> economic growth –> strong division of labor –> standards of living rise –> increased savings –> increased investment –> stock market rises –> increased entrepreneurship –> more startups –> outsized gains for investors –> good companies scale… bad companies go bust –> recessions clean out the system –> resumed economic growth

The problem is, these days we have interventions at every stage in the process described above.

For starters, arbitrary regulations and an arcane tax code distort activity throughout the economy. Paired together, regulations and taxes create a system of incentives and disincentives that influence economic activity.

Certain incentives may make a particular company or project look worthwhile when it otherwise wouldn’t be. And the reverse is also true. Disincentives can make a particular investment look bad when it otherwise would be productive.

When this happens, it throws a wrench in the free-flowing system we outlined above. It doesn’t take long before market signals are muddled. Then malinvestment sprouts up to cover the wheels of commerce like kudzu on a neglected building.